2015-16 El Nino ends, says Australian Met department

PUNE: Finally, the dreaded El Nino of 2015-16 has ended, said the Bureau of Meteorology ( BoM), Australia as the seas surface temperatures across the Pacific ocean have cooled down to their neutral levels.

"The tropical Pacific Ocean has returned to a neutral El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific have cooled to neutral levels over the past fortnight, supported by much cooler-than-average waters beneath the surface," stated the BoM release.

It added, "In the atmosphere, indicators such as the trade winds, cloudiness near the Date Line, and the Southern Oscillation Index have also returned to neutral levels. Outlooks suggest little chance of returning to El Nino levels, in which case mid-May will mark the end of the 2015–16 El Nino."

The BoM has forecast possibility of formation of La Nina conditions. "International climate models indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool, with six of eight models suggesting La Nina is likely to form during the austral winter (June–August). However, individual model outlooks show a large spread between neutral and La Nina scenarios," it said.

Changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, combined with current climate model outlooks, suggest the likelihood of La Nina forming later in 2016 is around 50%.

Climate model outlooks for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) suggest a negative IOD event is likely to develop during the austral winter. "However, outlook accuracy for the IOD at this time of year is low," noted BoM update.