Trade war: US-China relation burnout may spark India’s rise from the smoke

Tensions between the United States and China are escalating rapidly, with many American observers now turning to India to gauge whether it can step in as an alternative to Beijing, ToI reported. The latest blow to already strained ties came on Tuesday when China ordered its airlines to stop taking delivery of Boeing aircraft. Boeing had projected nearly 9,000 deliveries to China over the next 20 years, amounting to about 20% of its global order book. By contrast, India is estimated to order around 2,400 Boeing aircraft by 2043.

Meanwhile, China now faces tariffs of up to 245% on its exports to the United States, according to a White House fact sheet, following its retaliatory move to block further deliveries of Boeing aircraft.

Also Read: China faces up to 245% tariffs on imports to the US: White House Fact sheet


India’s aviation sector, already grappling with global supply chain issues, may benefit from this fallout. Aircraft originally meant for Chinese carriers could now be redirected to Indian buyers. Indian carriers such as Air India Express and Akasa are in line to receive Boeing 737 MAX jets, the same model Chinese airlines had on order. Additionally, China had also been waiting for 11 Boeing 787 Dreamliners, another aircraft included in Air India’s purchase list.

“We anticipate some of these aircraft, originally destined for Chinese carriers, will be redirected to Indian customers. The previous year or two witnessed a similar occurrence, with white tails (aircraft manufactured for specific customers but acquired by others) being allocated to AI Express and Akasa,” airline industry specialists told TOI.

The Chinese order also called for halting purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts. The move is seen as a calculated risk to promote its domestic aerospace sector, led by the state-owned Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC), which aims to challenge the dominance of Boeing and Airbus.

Beijing’s stance is seen as retaliation against US President Donald Trump’s sweeping 145% tariffs, which White House now says is 245%. However, the reaction in the United States has been one of concern. Commentators worry that Trump has miscalculated by isolating China without aligning with allies. Instead of consolidating global support, he has seemingly alienated most of the world, including close European partners.



A viral meme depicting Trump saying “I hold the cards” and Xi Jinping replying “The cards are made in China” captured the popular sentiment. While both countries are expected to face economic strain from the clash, many believe China is in a stronger position, with more resilience than the Trump administration had accounted for.

In this shifting landscape, India is being eyed as a possible gainer from the trade conflict. The New York Times ran a front-page story asking, “Is India ready to step in for China?” While Trump’s trade war may work in New Delhi’s favour, doubts remain over India’s capacity to become a manufacturing hub. Challenges such as a shortage of skilled workers, inadequate infrastructure, tangled supply chains, and bureaucratic delays still hamper its progress.

Even so, hardline proponents of Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement are wary of replacing China with India in critical areas such as pharmaceuticals. Trump has vacillated on whether to impose tariffs on pharmaceutical imports, at first holding back and later suggesting a review.

The President’s shifting positions on key sectors, including automobiles, have triggered accusations of favouritism and insider dealing. As the trade conflict widens, the US appears increasingly unsettled compared to China and the rest of the world. On Monday, a defensive Trump said he doesn’t change his mind but is a “very flexible person.” He has since suggested more carve-outs from tariffs to shield the US auto sector. Meanwhile, America’s $42 billion toy industry, which relies heavily on Chinese suppliers, is also demanding exemptions, arguing toys are essential for child development.

Among liberal commentators, there is growing scepticism that Trump is effectively outmanoeuvring China. Some argue it is Trump who appears cornered. The Chinese President’s high-profile visits to Vietnam and Malaysia have raised further concern. "What if you get into a trade war with China and you lose? What if, after infuriating the rest of the world, putting tariffs on them, too, you make China look stronger, more reliable, more farsighted, more strategic in the eyes of all these other countries that are now looking for an exit from the unreliable consequences of US hegemony?" liberal podcaster Ezra Klein asked.

Despite growing anxiety, Trump attempted to project a conciliatory tone. Referring to Xi Jinping, he said: “I like him. He likes me. I mean, you know, who knows?”

Chinese social media has responded with a wave of ridicule, flooding the internet with memes, cartoons and videos. One widely shared meme showed Xi holding a pair of aces and Trump holding a two and a seven — the weakest possible hand in poker.

The distrust generated by Trump’s trade and geopolitical battles has reached such a point that the European Commission has reportedly issued burner phones and basic laptops to some staff headed to Washington for the World Bank/IMF meetings, according to the Financial Times. This level of caution, normally reserved for visits to China, underlines the deepening unease with Washington’s current posture.

(with ToI inputs)