Shrimp, organic chemicals, apparel, jewellery exports may dip 50-70% due to Trump tariff: GTRI

The imposition of a 50 per cent US tariff on Indian goods will impact exports of nine product categories, including shrimp, organic chemicals, apparel, and jewellery by 50-70 per cent, think tank GTRI said on Thursday.

US President Donald Trump on Wednesday slapped an additional 25 per cent tariff, raising the total duties to 50 per cent on goods coming from India, as a penalty for New Delhi's continued purchase of Russian oil. The 50 per cent duty will come into effect from August 27.

This is on top of the usual US import duties, called Most Favoured Nation (MFN) tariffs.


This decision makes India one of the most heavily taxed US trading partners, worse off than China (30 per cent) or Vietnam (20 per cent), and on par with Brazil.

GTRI, in its analysis, has categorised India's export segments in three categories- very high impact sectors (exports may be down by 50-70 per cent), high-impact sectors (exports may be down by 30-50 per cent), and low or no impact areas.

In the first category, there are nine product categories - shrimp, organic chemicals, carpets, knitted and woven apparel, made-ups, diamonds, gold and jewellery, machinery and mechanical appliances, and furniture and bedding.

The high-impact segment goods are steel, aluminium, copper, and auto parts.

The last category items are pharmaceuticals, smartphones, and petroleum products, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said.

India exported USD 2 billion worth of shrimps to the US in FY2025, accounting for 9.52 per cent of total US shrimp imports.

These now face a 50 per cent tariff, an antidumping duty and a countervailing duty of about 10 per cent.

"India faces stiff competition from Canada (16.16 per cent share, zero tariff under USMCA) and Chile (15.02 per cent share, 10 per cent tariff). With such high duties, Indian shrimps risk losing significant ground to lower-taxed competitors like Chile," GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava said.

India exported USD 2.7 billion of organic chemicals to the US, holding a 5.11 per cent market share, and now faces a 54 per cent total tariff (4 per cent MFN + 50 per cent Trump tariff).

In contrast, Ireland (36.11 per cent share) pays just 15 per cent, and Switzerland (6.46 per cent ) pays 39 per cent.

"Indian chemical exporters will struggle to stay competitive against these low-tariff suppliers," he said, adding that India is the largest exporter of carpets to the US, with a 35.48 per cent market share and USD 1.2 billion in export value.

He also said that with USD 10 billion in exports and a 13.63 per cent market share, this is India's top sector to the US, now facing 52.1 per cent duty (2.1 per cent MFN + 50 per cent).

Switzerland (17.02 per cent) and Canada (10.44 per cent) pay lower duties -- 39 per cent and 35 per cent, respectively.

Further, the country exported USD 6.7 billion in machinery, with a 6.79 per cent share of US imports.

"Now facing a 51.3 per cent duty (1.3 per cent MFN + 50 per cent), India trails behind Mexico (19.92 per cent, zero tariffs), China (16.03 per cent, 30 per cent duty), and Taiwan (10 per cent, 15 per cent levy)," Srivastava said.

"Top Indian firms include GE India, Bharat Forge, and JCB India. Tariffs could derail India's climb in advanced manufacturing exports," he noted.