Lock, stock, and no cheap China imports

Wary of cheap Chinese goods flooding India, policymakers are identifying markets and goods that need to be ringfenced through a minimum import price, safeguard duties or other steps, officials said.

The preventive measures have acquired urgency after the US on Wednesday raised the import duty on Chinese goods to 125% "effective immediately" as the tariff battle between the two escalates. This came hours after China said it was raising tariffs on US goods to 84%.

Locked out of US markets, Chinese manufacturers may dump goods in India at predatory prices, fear Indian policymakers.

"There is a threat-we are watching the situation closely," said an official. "We are looking at ways to avoid circumvention."

US President Donald Trump late on Wednesday said he was pausing tariffs on most nations for 90 days. He had on April 2 announced reciprocal tariffs on most nations including India.

Typically, anti-dumping measures are imposed after a detailed investigation following a complaint from an affected party. The inquiry determines whether dumping has taken place and domestic industry has been damaged, a process that can take up to 18 months. However, a provisional anti-dumping duty can be imposed as an interim measure during the investigation, for up to six months. "The provisional anti-dumping duty can be imposed in some cases, but not all," said a trade expert.

Besides such stopgap measures, the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) can also suo motu begin probes against alleged dumping.

In 2023, the DGTR began such inquiries against Chinese roller chains, glass mirrors and fasteners to protect micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) against cheap imports.

Such cases are initiated when the domestic industry doesn't understand the processes involved but it has to provide data to prove injury to the government.

"There is a discussion that India should not wait for the injury to happen," said another person aware of the development.

India imported goods worth $95 billion from China in the April-January period of FY25. The DGTR conducted 43 anti-dumping reviews in 2024, of which 34 were against China. The government is also zeroing on products where a minimum import price (MIP) can be levied. This is a temporary measure to provide protection to domestic industry from the predatory pricing of imports. No imports are allowed below that price, providing protection to domestic manufacturers. "Be it safeguards or MIP-all measures are being looked into," said the person cited above.

Safeguards are used when the import of a product rises unexpectedly and causes or threatens to cause serious harm to domestic producers.

Unlike anti-dumping, which is country-specific, safeguard duties apply to all and give domestic producers a grace period to become more competitive.

Last month, while recommending a 12% provisional safeguard duty on steel products, the DGTR had said that "critical circumstances" exist for such measures as a delay would damage the domestic industry.