India’s trade dependence on the US up 0.6% in last 12 months: UNCTAD

New Delhi: India’s trade dependence on the US has risen 0.6% in the last 12 months while Russia’s trade dependence on India rose 0.7%, UNCTAD said in its Global Trade Outlook Thursday.

It also said that despite turbulence from shifting US trade policy, global trade dynamics have so far shown limited disruption, with developing economies maintaining strong commitment to trade as a foundation for growth. The multilateral body cautioned that uncertainty over the US policy remains a notable risk.

“On a trailing four quarters basis, growth remains robust—around 5% for goods and 6% for services,” UNCTAD said.


Driven primarily by developing economies, global trade expanded by about $500 billion in the first half of 2025 despite volatility, policy shifts and persistent geopolitical tensions, according to the “Barring major negative shocks in the final months of 2025, the value of global trade is projected to surpass its record levels of 2024,” UNCTAD said.

As per the report, global imbalances in goods trade continued to widen in recent quarters but reversed in Q2 2025, largely due to shifts in the US’ trade policy.

“Trade deficits widened for Japan, India, and the UK,” it said.

The manufacturing sector continues to drive global trade growth, led by electronics. Hybrid and electric vehicles are driving automotive trade growth, according to UNCTAD.

“Momentum is expected to continue in the third quarter, with goods expected to expand by about 2.5% quarter over quarter and services accelerating sharply to around 4%,” it said.

Negative factors hindering the trade outlook include persisting trade policy uncertainty in the US, continuing geopolitical tensions and ongoing conflicts and resurgence of restrictive policy as a response to global overcapacity, as per the UN agency.

Stronger economic growth and monetary support, limited negative policy spillovers and growth of services trade, and resilience of the multilateral trading system and increased scope for trade cooperations are the positive factors influencing the global trade outlook