India's exports rebound in Nov on supply-chain shifts, US holiday restocking: GTRI

Supply-chain realignments and inventory restocking ahead of the US holiday season helped India's exports rebound in November, think tank GTRI said on Sunday.

After recording contraction for two consecutive months, India's merchandise exports to the US rose 22.61 per cent to USD 6.98 billion in November despite steep 50 per cent tariffs on domestic goods, according to commerce ministry data.

Imports during the month grew 38.29 per cent to USD 5.25 billion.


During the April-November period of this fiscal year, the country's exports to the US increased 11.38 per cent to USD 59.04 billion, while imports rose 13.49 per cent to USD 35.4 billion.

The US has imposed a sweeping 50 per cent tariff on Indian goods entering American markets from August 27.

The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said in sectors such as electronics and machinery, "supply-chain realignments and inventory restocking ahead of the US holiday season also supported shipments".

It added that the rebound after September therefore reflects adjustment to a tougher tariff regime, not relief, and remains fragile, driven by short-term coping strategies rather than a lasting improvement.

The drop in India's exports to th US between May and September likely reflected the shock and uncertainty created by impending tariff hikes, which led buyers to delay orders and run down inventories, GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said.

"Once the higher tariffs became certain, exporters and US buyers began adjusting, absorbing part of the cost, renegotiating prices, and shifting toward less-affected or hard-to-substitute products," he said.

According to a GTRI report, the fall-and-recovery pattern is visible in 85 per cent of India's November exports across most product categories.

These include electronics (smartphones), gems and jewellery, machinery, vehicles and auto components, pharmaceuticals, textiles and garments, carpets, mineral fuels, organic chemicals, plastics, rubber articles, fish, dairy products, and edible fruits and nuts.

Exports of smartphones, India's single largest export, fell from USD 2.29 billion in May to USD 884.6 million in September, then recovered to USD 1.8 billion in November.

Exports of gems and jewellery, a category that can swing sharply with demand and pricing, plunged from USD 500.2 million in May to USD 202.8 million in September, before surging back to USD 406.2 million in November.

It said that a similar pattern played out in machinery and mechanical appliances where exports eased to USD 516.8 million in September, then returned to USD 614.6 million last month.

Pharmaceutical exports reached USD 669.2 million in November.

Mineral fuels and oils fell moderately despite being tariff-exempt from USD 291.5 million in May to USD 251.5 million in September before rising to USD 274.3 million in November, it added.