Global trade to pickup in 2024: WTO

New Delhi: Global goods trade is expected to pick up gradually this year following a contraction in 2023, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said in a forecast Wednesday. The volume of world merchandise trade should increase by 2.6% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025 after falling 1.2% in 2023, it said but cautioned that regional conflicts, geopolitical tensions and economic policy uncertainty pose substantial downside risks to the forecast.

It also said that India’s merchandise exports for 2023 was $432 billion, 5% lower than the previous year while imports fell 7% at $673 billion.

India clocked $451 billion goods export in FY 23 and $394.99 billion in April-February FY24.


In its latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report, India’s share of global goods exports was 1.8% in 2023 and imports was 2.8%.

In digitally delivered services, India’s share rose to 6% in 2023 from 4.4% in 2019, it said.

In global commercial services, India’s share in exports is seen 4.4% in 2023 at $344 billion, up 11% on-year whereas imports were flat at $247 billion.

“Global goods trade is expected to pick up gradually this year following a contraction in 2023 that was driven by the lingering effects of high energy prices and inflation,” WTO economists said.

As per the report, signs of fragmentation may also be emerging in services trade: US imports of information, computer, and telecommunications (ICT) services from North American trading partners (mostly Canada) increased to 23% in 2023 from 15.7% of total ICT imports in 2018
while US imports of the same from Asian trading partners (mostly India) fell to 32.6%. from 45.1%

Between 2019 and 2023, the rise in the share of “Other Asia” (Asian countries except China) was driven mainly by increased trade with Viet Nam, Thailand, Taiwan, and India. In 2023, the dollar value of bilateral trade with these economies was up 136%, 103%, 82%, and 76%, respectively, compared to pre- pandemic levels, according to the report.

The decline in merchandise exports in 2023 was partly due to falling prices for commodities, such as oil and gas.

“In 2024 and 2025, inflation is expected to gradually abate, allowing real incomes to grow again in advanced economies, boosting consumption of manufactured goods. A recovery of demand for tradable goods in 2024 is already evident.

“This is related to an increase in household consumption linked to improved income prospects,” it added.

It also said conflict in the Middle East has diverted sea shipments between Europe and Asia while tensions elsewhere could lead to trade fragmentation.
Rising protectionism is another risk that could undermine the recovery of trade in 2024 and 2025, the WTO said.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said: “We are making progress towards global trade recovery, thanks to resilient supply chains and a solid multilateral trading framework, which are vital for improving livelihoods and welfare” adding that it is imperative that risks like geopolitical strife and trade fragmentation are mitigated to maintain economic growth and stability.