India–Russia ties: What to expect from Putin’s high-stakes visit as New Delhi navigates US pressure

As President Vladimir Putin is set to India for the first time since the Ukraine war, New Delhi faces a delicate diplomatic tightrope: safeguarding its strategic autonomy while juggling U.S. pressure on one side and long-standing dependence on Moscow on the other.

Putin lands in New Delhi on December 4–5, 2025 for the 23rd India–Russia Annual Summit, making his first visit in nearly four years—and one of the most politically charged encounters India has hosted since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He is scheduled to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi and attend a state banquet hosted by the President of India.

Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) in its report explained that defence ties will remain critical as roughly two-thirds of India’s military platforms are of Russian origin, tying readiness to Russian spares and upgrades.


Additionally, trade remains lopsided as India exports barely $5 billion to Russia annually, compared with nearly
$64 billion in imports driven by energy. "India’s export footprint in Russia is narrow, with pharmaceuticals and machinery strong but garments, electronics and consumer goods negligible. Payments are increasingly de-dollarised, routed through UAE dirhams, rupees and yuan, reflecting the workaround economy created by sanctions," said GTRI.

What Will Be Discussed?

In defence, Indian officials are expected to seek accelerated delivery of additional S-400 Triumf systems and greater clarity on spares and upgrades for Russia-sourced platforms. The Su-57 stealth fighter may be discussed, but more as a future possibility than a near-term commitment.

"In energy, New Delhi is expected to pursue long-term crude contracts with Non US sanctioned Russian firms like Lukoil and Roseneft, revival of Indian investments in Russian energy projects, and advancement of nuclear cooperation beyond Kudankulam. Cooperation in critical minerals, manufacturing and maritime connectivity linking India with Russia’s Far East may also be discussed," said GTRI in its report.

What to expect from the visit?

GTRI’s report outlines two possible scenarios for the partnership: a managed upgrade or a strategic deepening of ties.

A Managed Upgrade

The most likely outcome is a cautious strengthening of existing ties. India could secure firm timelines on defence deliveries, maintenance contracts, and technology upgrades for aircraft, tanks and submarines. Russia, in turn, may lock in long-term energy commitments—including revived Indian equity in LNG fields, multi-year crude supply agreements, and accelerated nuclear plant construction.

"The two countries may also formalize a new payment framework using the dirham or integrate Russia’s SPFS system with India’s RuPay network. This scenario stabilizes the relationship without significantly raising diplomatic costs," said GTRI.

Strategic Deepening

The more ambitious alternative would mark a deeper realignment. "India and Russia could agree on joint production of defence equipment, Indian investment in Russian oil and gas projects such as Arctic LNG 2 or Vostok, and expansion of nuclear cooperation beyond existing reactors," said GTRI.

Additionally, GTRI expects connectivity initiatives like the Chennai–Vladivostok corridor or nodes of the International North–South Transport Corridor could also gain momentum.

The Three Pillars: Energy, Defence and Strategic Alignment

India’s current engagement with Russia rests on three pillars—energy, defence and diplomacy. Energy now dominates the relationship.

Russia has become India’s largest crude oil supplier, accounting for as much as 30–35% of total oil imports, turning discounted crude into the foundation of the partnership. Defence forms the second pillar. Russia continues to supply and service a majority of India’s frontline platforms—fighter jets, submarines, tanks and air defence systems—and talks continue on maintenance support and future acquisitions.