India-US trade deal lifts a dark prong of global uncertainty, says Revenue Secretary

New Delhi: One of the biggest sources of global uncertainty weighing on India’s trade outlook has eased following the breakthrough trade deal between New Delhi and Washington, senior Union Finance Ministry officials said on Tuesday, linking the development to improved visibility for industry and stronger economic momentum ahead.

“One of the dark prongs of global uncertainty has been lifted with the Trump decision,” Revenue Secretary Arvind Shrivastava said, referring to the agreement announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump a day earlier. “I think now, 18%, I think our industry can feel a certain view of certainty.”

Shrivastava was speaking at FICCI’s Interactive Session on Union Budget 2026–27, held at Federation House, Tansen Marg, New Delhi, where senior officials addressed industry representatives on the economic backdrop to the Budget and evolving global trade conditions.


Anuradha Thakur, Secretary in the Department of Economic Affairs welcomed the conclusion of its trade agreement with the United States, viewing it as a key step towards reducing uncertainty and unlocking fresh investment opportunities between the two countries.

Also read: India's immediate end of Russian oil after US trade deal to be a big disruption, Moody's says

Thakur said the agreement creates a more predictable framework for economic engagement between the world’s two largest democracies.

“We are happy that the trade deal has got finalized, removes uncertainty in that space, and is providing opportunity for two of the largest democracies in the world, for instance, to take this kind of investment,” she said.

When asked whether the agreement would involve India opening its market to agricultural imports from the US, Thakur indicated that discussions were still evolving.

“There is no clarity as of now on the Indian market opening up to U.S. agricultural products. Clarity will emerge in due course,” she said.

On the potential growth impact of the deal, Thakur said it was premature to assess whether it could push India’s growth rate beyond the 6.8 per cent to 7.2 per cent range projected in the Economic Survey.

India, US stun the world with breakthrough deal

His remarks came hours after India and the United States clinched a trade deal following months of strained negotiations, culminating in a phone call between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Trump late on Monday. As part of the agreement, Washington announced a sharp cut in tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from as high as 50%, while also withdrawing the additional penal levy imposed on India for purchasing Russian oil.

The deal marks a significant easing of tensions in India–US economic ties after a period marked by tariff actions and uncertainty for exporters. The United States is India’s top export destination, accounting for about 20% of merchandise exports, and its largest trading partner overall, with bilateral trade valued at $131.84 billion.

At the same FICCI event, Economic Affairs Secretary Anuradha Thakur linked the timing of the deal to the assumptions under which Union Budget 2026–27 had been framed, noting that global conditions had shifted meaningfully since then.

“That when the budget was prepared, including during the two rounds of budget consultations, we were working with the situation as it existed then. Since then, a good deal of uncertainty has been removed, and we now look forward to greater buoyancy. Even so, the budget roadmap is transparently laid out in the books, and we are confident,” Thakur said, commenting on India–US trade.

While Trump said India had agreed to stop buying Russian oil and increase purchases from the US and potentially Venezuela, the Indian government has not publicly commented on any such specific commitments related to energy sourcing.

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Inside the deal: What India will buy from the US

According to details reported by Reuters, India has agreed to step up purchases of petroleum, defence goods, electronics, pharmaceuticals, telecom equipment and aircraft from the United States under the deal. A government official, who did not want to be named, told Reuters on Tuesday that the aim was to reduce the trade deficit that the United States runs with India.

“The commitment to buy US products covers sectors like pharmaceuticals, telecom, defence, petroleum and aircraft. It will be done over the years,” the official said. The official added that India had also offered market access in some agricultural products, saying, “We have offered market access in some agricultural products too,” without providing further details.

Trump, announcing the agreement on Monday, said Washington would lower tariffs on Indian goods in exchange for India halting purchases of Russian oil and lowering trade barriers, adding that India had agreed to “BUY AMERICAN at a much higher level”. According to Reuters, Trump said India could buy as much as $500 billion worth of US energy, coal, technology, agricultural and other products under the deal.

The agreement announced this week is being described by officials as the first tranche of a broader bilateral trade deal, with negotiations on a more comprehensive agreement set to continue over the coming months. New Delhi and Washington have been negotiating a wider trade pact since February last year, targeting $500 billion in bilateral trade by 2030, up from about $191 billion currently.

Also read: India's commitment to buy US goods under deal includes petroleum, defence, aircraft, official says

The deal also comes days after India concluded a free trade agreement with the European Union, giving it preferential access to two of the world’s largest trading blocs. Over the past 12 months, India has signed five trade agreements, including pacts with the UK, the EU, Oman and New Zealand.

Markets responded positively to the announcement, with investor sentiment improving sharply on Tuesday. The benchmark Nifty 50 index rose nearly 3%, while the rupee strengthened more than 1% to 90.40 per dollar in early trading, reflecting optimism that the easing of trade tensions could support exports, growth and fiscal assumptions underpinning the Union Budget.