India nearing US trade deal as Trump’s tariff clock ticks, but caution urged: GTRI

India could soon finalise a bilateral trade deal with Washington as US President Donald Trump intensifies pressure on countries by issuing formal tariff notices, reported PTI, citing think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) as saying, on Tuesday.

“Trump's model isn't a free trade agreement, it's a YATRA — Yielding to American Tariff Retaliation Agreement,” PTI quoted GTRI statement, referring to the US President’s hardline approach.

The US has now pushed the deadline for finalising trade agreements from July 9 to August 1, offering countries a three-week extension before sweeping country-specific tariffs come into effect.


The broader trade move began on April 2, when Trump announced that around 60 countries would face new tariffs unless they reached fresh agreements aligned with US trade goals.

Only the UK and Vietnam have finalised deals so far, while a temporary ceasefire is in place with China.

“Now, Trump is escalating the pressure. On July 7, he signed formal letters to 14 countries, outlining the tariffs they will face from August 1 if they fail to conclude a deal,” GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava said.

According to the new list, the US will impose 25% tariffs on Japan, South Korea, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, and Tunisia; 30% on South Africa and Bosnia and Herzegovina; 32% on Indonesia; 35% on Bangladesh and Serbia; 36% on Cambodia and Thailand; and 40% on Laos and Myanmar.

“These warnings, described by the White House as ‘final notices’, leave countries with a stark choice: accept US terms or face higher duties,” Srivastava added.

He cautioned that the tariff escalation could disrupt global trade flows, inflate consumer prices in the US, and cause supply chain complications.

US imports from China reportedly dropped by 35% in May 2025 over the previous year.

“With the clock ticking, India is seen as a top candidate for a deal announcement in the coming days,” Srivastava said, while warning that “New Delhi must tread carefully.”

Given the US administration’s recent unilateral actions — including warnings to BRICS members — GTRI said India must assess the long-term strategic implications of any trade pact that could tilt heavily in Washington’s favour.

(With inputs from PTI)