India, Canada & Mexico's $8 trillion trade math looks for cover amid Trump tariff bullet

India is stepping up trade talks with Canada and Mexico as the three countries look to expand their markets and build new partnerships amid disruptions caused by US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.

Negotiators from India and Canada plan to hold a fifth round of talks from October 5, building on discussions that concluded last week, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. A deal is likely to be inked in December when Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to visit Canada, the Globe and Mail reported, citing Indian envoy Dinesh Patnaik.

Trade negotiations with Mexico


Separately, New Delhi is finalizing a framework with Mexico to begin formal trade negotiations, the people said, asking not to be identified as the discussions are private. Officials are seeking to make faster progress in the trade talks as all three countries look to diversify their commercial ties, they said.

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Mexico’s Economy Ministry, which oversees the country’s trade negotiations, said there’s ongoing analysis for a potential deal although there’s no concrete or final proposal yet.

$8 trillion economic output

The three economies, with combined economic output of more than $8 trillion, are grappling with disruption from Trump’s trade policies. Mexico is scrambling to reach an agreement with the US as the two sides negotiate changes to their existing pact, while Canada-US talks collapsed last month. The US is by far the biggest export market for both Canada and Mexico.

India, meanwhile, is contending with fresh tariff threats from a new law that gives Trump the power to impose levies of as much as 100% on countries that purchase Russian oil and gas. New Delhi reached an interim trade deal with the US earlier this year, and has been locked in negotiations over the tariff rate.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Tuesday confirmed Modi’s visit to the country in December, around the time the Indian leader is expected to head to the Group of 20 meeting in Miami. Carney described Canada’s relationship with India as “exceptionally important” and that trade talks have proceeded well — echoing comments from his trade minister, Maninder Sidhu, in an interview on Bloomberg TV this week.

India’s outreach to Canada and Mexico is part of a broader push to expand trade ties and gain greater access to global markets. Over the past year, New Delhi has signed trade agreements with the UK, Oman and New Zealand and wrapped up years of negotiations with the European Union, while continuing talks with several other economies.

India’s two-way trade with Canada and Mexico stood at nearly $8 billion each in 2025-26.

Mexico is seeking greater access to India’s market for its alcoholic beverage tequila, fruit and auto components, people familiar with the matter said. New Delhi, meanwhile, wants Mexico to lower barriers on goods like automobiles, auto parts, and steel, they said. Last year, President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration imposed tariffs of between 5% and 50% on steel and other products from Asian nations that don’t have a trade deal with Mexico.

India is looking to conclude a limited preferential trade agreement comprising only a small number of goods, the people said. The terms of negotiations are likely to be signed soon, and the two sides expect talks to conclude by December, they said.

(With inputs from Bloomberg)