Let’s invest $50 bn to end the pandemic. This is the best use of public money the world will see in our lifetimes

As preparations are made for the G7 Summit in the UK next week, top of the agenda is how to end the Covid-19 pandemic and secure the global recovery. By now it has become abundantly clear there will be no broad-based recovery without an end to the health crisis. Access to vaccination is key to both. But inequitable vaccine distribution is not only leaving untold millions of people vulnerable to the virus, it is also allowing deadly variants to emerge and ricochet back across the world. It need not be this way. That is why we are calling today for a new level of international support for – and implementation of – a stepped up coordinated strategy, backed by new financing, to vaccinate the world.

A recent proposal from IMF staff puts forward a plan with clear targets, pragmatic actions, and at a feasible cost. It builds on and supports the ongoing work of WHO, its partners in the Access to Covid-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator initiative and its global vaccine access programme Covax, as well as the work of the World Bank Group, WTO and many others.

At an estimated $50 billion, it will bring the pandemic to an end faster in the developing world, reduce infections and loss of lives, accelerate the economic recovery, and generate some $9 trillion in additional global output by 2025. It is a win for all – while around 60% of the gains will go to emerging markets and developing economies, the remaining 40% will benefit the developed world. And this is without taking into account the inestimable benefits on people’s health and lives.

What does it entail? First, increasing our ambition and vaccinating more people faster: WHO and its Covax partners have set a goal of vaccinating at least 30% of the population in all countries by the end of 2021. But this can reach even 40% through other agreements and surge investment, and at least 60% by the first half of 2022.

To do so requires additional financing for low- and middle-income countries, with a very significant proportion in the form of grants and concessional financing. To urgently get more shots in arms, doses need to be donated immediately to developing countries synchronised with national vaccine deployment plans, including through Covax. Cooperation on trade is also needed to ensure free cross-border flows and increasing supplies of raw materials and finished vaccines.

Second, insuring against downside risks such as new variants that may necessitate booster shots. This means investing in additional vaccine production capacity by at least one billion doses, diversifying production to regions with little current capacity, sharing technology and knowhow, scaling up genomic and supply-chain surveillance, and contingency plans to handle virus mutations or supply shocks.

Third, immediately boosting testing and tracing, oxygen supplies, therapeutic and public health measures, while ramping up vaccine deployment, and the ACT-Accelerator initiative. WHO, Unicef, World Bank and Gavi have been conducting vaccine readiness assessments in over 140 developing countries, and providing on-the-ground support and financing to prepare for vaccine rollout.

What about the cost? Of the $50 billion, there is a strong case for grants of at least $35 billion. G20 governments have sent positive signals. The remainder of the overall financing plan – around $15 billion – could come from national governments supported by multilateral development banks, including the World Bank’s $12 billion financial facility for vaccination.

For the plan to work, there are two additional requirements: speed and coordination. It calls for upfront financing, upfront vaccine donations, and upfront precautionary investments and planning – rather than commitments that may be slow to materialise. It is essential that all of this is made available as soon as possible. It also requires coordinated global action, grounded in full transparency in the procurement and delivery process.

Investing $50 billion to end the pandemic is potentially the best use of public money we will see in our lifetimes. It will pay a huge development dividend and boost growth and wellbeing globally. But the window of opportunity is closing fast – the longer we wait, the costlier it becomes, in human suffering and in economic losses.

On behalf of our four organisations, today we announce a new commitment to work together to scale up needed financing, boost manufacturing and ensure the smooth flow of vaccines and raw materials across borders to dramatically increase vaccine access to support the health response and economic recovery, and to bring needed hope. Ending the pandemic is a solvable problem that requires global action – now. Let’s all pull together and get the job done.

(Kristalina Georgieva is Managing Director of IMF; Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus is Director-General of WHO; David Malpass is President of the World Bank Group; and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala is Director-General of WTO)

(Views expressed above are the authors' own.)