Centre may save ₹45k cr on lower capex by states, subsidy payout

The Central government's fiscal 2024 spending is expected to be about ₹45,000 crore less than the revised estimates presented with the budget on February 1, because of lower capital expenditure and subsidy pay-out.

The savings could mainly come from the subsidy bill on account of softening fertiliser prices, under-utilisation of funds by states, including for their capital spending and interest from states on money parked in single nodal agency accounts, a senior official told ET. The government, in the budget presented last month, had revised its 2023-24 expenditure estimate to ₹44.90 lakh crore from the previously budgeted ₹45.03 lakh crore.

Any unspent amount from the revised estimate, backed by improved tax collections, could help the Centre further trim its fiscal deficit from the budgeted 5.8% of gross domestic product unless there is some last-minute adjustment necessitating an additional outgo, the official said.

The Centre had revised its fiscal deficit target for fiscal 2024 to 5.8% of GDP in the current fiscal year from the 5.9% gap forecast in the budget for the year. Its total expenditure is estimated at ₹47.66 lakh crore.

"Despite the hike in LPG and food subsidy, the total subsidy bill is likely to be lower by ₹8,000 crore from the revised estimate," the official added.

The FY24 allocation for fertiliser subsidy was revised to ₹1.89 lakh crore from the budgeted ₹1.75 lakh crore. However, moderating global fertiliser prices, reduced import volume and efficient subsidy utilisation could result in the lower subsidy outgo. The Centre also expects about ₹15,000 crore saving against the revised Rs 1.05 lakh crore capex loan target for states this fiscal year.

While the finance ministry is pushing states to exhaust the entire allocated amount for this fiscal year to bolster their capex, based on the utilisation so far, a portion of the outlay may remain unspent, said officials. The Centre has been extending, in recent years, a 50-year loan to states at zero interest to build durable assets and help boost economic growth.

"We have released ₹90,000 crore (in capex loan to states) so far and are ready to release another ₹10,000 crore next week if there are takers. However, the states are unlikely to be able to use up the entire amount," the official added.