Weak rains may cut coffee output: Report

KOCHI: A below-normal monsoon is likely to pull down further the country’s coffee output, which has been ravaged by the white stemborer pest attack. An initial estimate by growers puts the arabica production at 65,000 tonne in the coming season.

The growers had calculated the previous year’s arabica production in the range of 80,000 tonne to 90,000 tonne against the Coffee Board’s post-monsoon estimate of 1,02,000 tonne.

"If the monsoon is weak, production may be hit further,” said D Govindappa Jayaram, chairman of Karnataka Planter’s Association. The white stem--borer menace was earlier confined to the coffee grown in the plains.

But this time, the pest has been crimping the output in higher elevations as well, which does not augur well for the coffee production in the country. "Blossom rains during March were not uniformly distributed and were patchy, which resulted in long gaps of dry weather with high temperature. This was conducive for white stem-borer attacks," pointed out Coffee Board chairman Jawaid Akthar .

According to him, the crop in the coming season will depend on the distribution of rainfall. The board is adopting temporary measures to deal with the problem. But to find a lasting solution, it is jointly doing a research with the Indian Council for Agricultural Research. India produces the robusta variety in bulk but globally arabica is grown widely and this determines the price.

Arabica futures prices on ICE New York fell to just over $1 per pound in November 2013 with a good crop predicted in Brazil, the largest producer. But a drought during January and February led the Latin American nation to scale down the forecast to below 50 million bags (each bag of 60 kg).

As a result, prices flared up and went above $2 per pound. But showers in the last few weeks have eased the impact of the dry spell and international prices have fallen again. Arabica futures for September delivery stood at $1.76 per pound on Monday.

The Brazilian authorities have lowered their 2014-15 estimate of the Brazilian crop to 44.57 million bags though they argue that recent rains have to some extent compensated for the earlier damage.