Weak monsoon threat looms; food inflation fears rise

New Delhi: Trends show that moderate or stronger El Nino events have often coincided with weak monsoons, said a report by rating agency Care, indicating that India could see a below normal monsoon season as El Nino sets in.

The report said that 12 of 16 El Nino years were in deficient rainfall.

However, the impact of rainfall variability on agriculture and overall gross value added has weakened over time due to better irrigation coverage, resilient crop varieties and the rising share of services in the economy, the report added.


Agriculture, though smaller in output share, still employs 43% of India's workforce, making monsoon performance crucial for rural demand and livelihoods.

Poor rainfall can also fuel food inflation, especially in perishables such as tomatoes, onions and potatoes.