Sugar output may drop 15 pc to 27-27.2 MT this season: ISMA, NFCSFL

Sugar production in India -- the world's second-largest producer -- is projected to drop 15 per cent to 27-27.2 million tonnes in the ongoing 2024-25 season ending September, according to two industry bodies. National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd (NFCSFL) has projected lower sugar output at 27 MT after diversion for ethanol production for the 2024-25 season, compared to 31.9 million tonnes in the previous year.

Indian Sugar and Bio Energy Manufacturers' Association (ISMA), too, has estimated sugar production lower at 27.2 million tonne for the 2024-25 season as against 31.96 million tonne in the previous year in its second estimates released on Friday.

Production is likely to decline in all three major producing states -- Uttar Pradesh, Maharasthra, and Karnataka.


As on January 31, sugar production has reached 16.53 million tonne, down from 18.74 million tonne in the year-ago period, as per the NFCSFL data.

The two industry bodies attributed early flowering of sugarcane in Maharasthra and Karnataka due to change in weather cycle for likely decline in sugar output.

ISMA said sugarcane yield and sugar recovery in Uttar Pradesh is lower than last year primarily due to widespread red rot infestation and varietal replacement resulting in lower estimated sugar production in the state.

Similarly, two other major states of Maharashtra and Karnataka are getting lower cane yields per unit area due to onset of early flowering in several cane growing regions due to wet field conditions as a result of higher rainfall received during southwest monsoon/post-monsoon.

NFCSFL President Harshvardhan Patil said due to these reasons, there are indications of a decrease in the initially expected sugar production by the end of the season.

The crushing season of the factories in these two states is also expected to end earlier than expected, he added.

According to NFCSFL, there could be low sugar stocks at the end of the season, which can have a favourable impact on the sugar sales rate at the factory level, leading to timely cane payment to farmers.

ISMA has projected closing stock to be at 6.25 million tonne as on September 30, this year.