Sowing gathers pace but scanty rains still a worry

PUNE: Rains in the last one week speeded up the planting of soya bean and rice while sugar cane acreage expanded beyond last year's area. However, with the monsoon deficit still remaining around 20%, all eyes will be on government which may officially declare a drought after an empowered panel of ministers meets later this week.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), monsoon rainfall is currently active over Madhya Pradesh, eastern Rajasthan, eastern Gujarat and parts of Vidarbha and will continue to remain so for the next two to three days.

"After two to three days, the monsoon trough is expected to shift to the north which will lead to good rainfall in Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand and north-east India. The west coast will also receive good rainfall in the next two to three days," said Medha Khole, deputy director general of meteorology (weather forecast), IMD, Pune.

"Rainfall is subdued over the south interior peninsula and west Rajasthan and it will continue to remain subdued in these regions over the next two to three days," she added.

Rainfall deficiency has dropped from 22% on July 25 to 21% on July 29 due to good rainfall in central India. Deficiency is large in Punjab (-68%), Haryana (-71%), west Rajasthan (-65%) and Saurashtra and Kutch (-79%).

The government has launched contingency plans to ensure seeds are available to farmers and adequate fodder is supplied for livestock, as well as prioritising drinking water from low-level reservoirs. Once a drought is declared officially, banks can restructure loans given to farmers, while state governments can offer diesel at subsidised rates for running irrigation pumps.




Soyabean processors said rainfall received in the last four days has come as a saviour for industry. According to Soyabean Processors Association of India (SOPA), sowing has been completed on 10.2 million ha, which is close to last year's 10.3 million ha.

"Area has increased in Madhya Pradesh by 1.5 lakh ha and there is a net gain in Rajasthan too. We are expecting sowing to take place till the first week of August in Maharashtra. Good prices have helped to get good acreage under the crop," said SOPA spokesman Rajesh Agarwal.

Sugarcane area has increased from 5.09 million ha last year to 5.28 million ha this year. "Acreage in Uttar Pradesh has increased from 2.2 million ha last year to 2.4 million ha this year. In Tamil Nadu too, area has increased from 3.25 lakh ha last year to 3.73 lakh ha this year. The increase is due to very high prices in the last two years, offsetting the decline in area in Maharashtra," said Abinash Verma, director general, Indian Sugar Mills Association.

But sugar production may be affected as the yield is expected to decline due to less rainfall. Indian sugar futures rose for the third straight session to hit a new contract high on Monday on an improvement in consumer demand during the ongoing festive season. Earlier this month, the Indian Sugar Mills Association forecast a production of 25 million tonne for the next season starting in October.

Kerala is the top natural rubber producer in the country and has received 39% less rain than normal. The state received rains after a gap of several days, which is good for the plantation. The Rubber Board has forecast an output of 942,000 tonne for the year ending March, higher than the 899,400 tonne a year ago.

Tea output has been affected in the first five months due to dry weather and then excessive rainfall in June and July, which may hurt yields further in Assam, India's top producer. Output is falling in Karnataka and Kerala due to poor rainfall. India's tea production in 2012 may fall short of last year's 988.3 million kg.