Second successive year of below normal monsoon likely: IMD

NEW DELHI: For the second successive year, monsoon is likely to be below normal with parts of north-west and central India to be the most affected.

Rains are expected to be 93 percent of a long-term average, Earth Science Minister Harsh Vardhan said, after releasing the forecast of the India Meteorological Department.

"The Cabinet Secretariat and the Prime Minister's office have been informed about the forcast so that they can gear up for future possibilities," Harsh Vardhan said.

He, however, refused to say whether it will be a drought like situation this year. "Currently, weak El Nino conditions are prevailing over the Pacific. The latest forecast from the IMD-IITM coupled model forecast indicates El Nino conditions are likely to persist during the southwest monsoon season," said IMD in its release.

"At present, slight negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over Indian Ocean. The latest forecast from the coupled model indicates negative IOD conditions are likely to persist during the monsoon season," the release added.

The latest forecast raises concerns for output prospects for major summer crops such as rice, cane, soybean and cotton in the country that is a key global producer of these commodities.

Monsoon rains were hit by El Nino weather pattern in 2009, when the four-month long monsoon season turned the driest in nearly four decades.

Last year, India experienced deficient rainfall with 88 per cent of the LPA with states in North-West region like Rajastham, Haryana, DELHI-NCR and western UP being affected.