India's wheat plantings seen at record high but final output to depend on weather, FAO says

New Delhi: India's wheat planting is expected to reach a record level this season but the final output will depend on weather through April-May 2027, which is likely to be influenced by the ongoing El Nino event, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said in its latest report.

Planting of the mostly irrigated 2027 winter wheat crop, to be harvested between March and June 2027, is underway across the Far East, including India, under generally adequate soil moisture conditions, the FAO said in its Crop Prospects and Food Situation report.

India's wheat output stood at 117.19 million tonnes in 2025 and hit a record 120.7 million tonnes in 2026, compared with a five-year average of 111.8 million tonnes, the report said.


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"In India, wheat plantings are expected to reach a record level, driven by government incentives, including a remunerative minimum support price and fertilizer subsidies," the FAO said.

In mainland China, the subregion's largest producer, the area planted with wheat is forecast to remain close to the five-year average, the FAO said.

In Pakistan, plantings are forecast above average as record domestic wheat prices are expected to encourage farmers to expand acreage.

Other Far East countries, where wheat production is relatively limited, are also expected to plant above-average areas, driven by strong domestic demand for wheat-based products, the report said.

El Nino Riska

Final production will depend on the weather through April-May 2027, which is likely to be influenced by the ongoing El Nino event, the FAO said.

El Nino is typically associated with above-average rainfall between October and April across key wheat-growing areas, including the Korean Peninsula, central-eastern mainland China, central and northern Pakistan and most of Afghanistan.

Abundant rainfall may support crop development but could also raise the risk of localised flooding, the FAO said.

In higher-altitude and higher-latitude areas, part of the expected precipitation is likely to fall as snow. Adequate snow cover could protect overwintering crops from frost damage, while spring snowmelt may improve soil moisture and replenish reservoirs, benefiting spring and summer crops in 2027, it added.