Record harvest likely as southwest monsoon makes swift progress

NEW DELHI: The southwest monsoon has made swift progress, covering parts of central and western India two week ahead of schedule, setting the stage for another record harvest and strong agricultural growth.

A low pressure area near Andhra Pradesh accelerated the vital weather system, which will progress further in the next two days, Sivananda Pai, head of long-range forecasting at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), told ET.

“It might slow down after that, although another low pressure area in the eastern part of the country is expected to help it as it moves further northwards,” he said.


The rains have now covered most parts of southern, western and central India either before or on time. The northern and eastern states are on course to do the same.

The progress of the monsoon, which delivers about three-quarters of India’s annual rainfall, is a key determinant of agricultural output and rural incomes. Kharif crop planting has already increased 13 per cent over last year’s.

In the first two weeks, rainfall has been 31 per cent above normal across the country, with central India alone receiving double its normal rainfall. The eastern and north-eastern regions of the country face a marginal deficit, with rain 4 per cent below normal. This is expected to normalise as the monsoon covers these states.

Last year, the onset in most parts of the country was heavily delayed as June ended with a 33 per cent deficiency in rainfall across the country. This led to the IMD revising its normal onset and withdrawal dates, factoring in a delay of seven to 15 days for most regions.