Rainfall forecast can boost Rabi crop

NEW DELHI: Fresh rainfall forecast in the next five days over several parts of north and northwest India and wheat regions, including Eastern UP, by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), could come as a booster to key Rabi foodgrain, oilseed and pulses crop such as wheat, mustard/rapeseed, moong and chana.

UP���s contribution of wheat to the Central kitty has figured more and more prominently over the last three years and it is the perceived or real shortfall in this state that provoked high priced imports in both 2006 and 2007.

Cumulative rainfall during the North East monsoon season (October 1 to December 31, 2008) was a significant 31% below normal. Of the 36 met sub divisions, cumulative rainfall was deficient/scanty/no rain in 30 sub divisions (27 last year), triggering off apprehensions over whether freshly sown crop had recieved enough and imperative moisture, especially in rainfed areas.

The early and marked dry spell in the immediate aftermath of sowing also held the potential of upsetting Rabi crop output projections (the government expects a record 78-79 m tonne wheat output this year), coming as it does over lower kharif crop acreage and markedly deficient south west (summer monsoon) rainfall in the agriculturally sensitive month of July.

To boot, the rainfall shortage also had a negative impact on the total live water storage, whcih stood at only 49% (compared to 56% last year) of the Full Reservoir Level (FRL) as on January 15 this year.

However, much store is being set on the fresh rains despite the rain shortfall. Although, early January temperatures were suitably frost-free (frost is considered particularly harmful to the growth of the recently sown wheat) and low enough to keep sowing conditions positive for the wheat crop, deficient winter rain has meant that several wheat regions in the north were unable to get sufficient rain during the usual sowing and post sowing period.

However, the NCMRWF has forecast fairly widespread snowfall/rain over J&K and HP during the next 24 hours. Isolated to scattered rain/thundershowers are also forecast over adjoining parts of NW India and Uttarkhand during this time.

Rainfall, albeit isolated, is also expected over parts of E UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, W Bengal, Orissa and the NE states.
Key Rabi crops including wheat and Rabi oilseeds such as rapeseed/mustard, despite an increase in temperatures over parts of north India, MP and Bihar by 4-7 degree celsius over the next five days, the fresh rains would further help wheat crop growth in rainfed regions of north India.

The NCMRWF has also mainatined that it is not too late for the second irrigation of standing mustard/rapeseed crop, which flower around this time and need moisture in the roots to further growth. Rabi pulses such as masoor, peas and chana crop would also benefit from the fresh rains notwithstanding the higher minimum temperatures over the week.

The fresh showers are expected to heighten the good news over overall Rabi crop output, acreage for which have gone up e compared to last year, totalling an additonal 2.6 m ha (56.5 m ha). Wheat acreage has gone up by 0.1 m ha (27 m ha), coarse cereals acreage by 0.6 m ha (6.6 m ha) and pulses acreage by 0.8 m ha (13.4 m ha) while total Rabi oilseed acreage has gone up by 0.9 m ha (9 m ha) of which mustard alone has staked calm to an increase of 0.8% (6.6 m ha).

What makes the Rabi farm output all the more important is the fact that in the agriculturally key month of July, rainfall over the country as a whole was a good 17% lower compared to a LPA (long period average) of 293.3 mm. Thanks in part to that, total kharif crop acreage in 2008 went down by 2.4 m ha to only 101.15 m ha compared to 103.9 m ha the previous year. The biggest drop was seen in the pulses acreage (minus 1.9 m ha).

The government has built a strategic foodgrain (wheat and rice) reserve of five million tonnes in addition to high buffer stocks. Also, grain offtake this year has been marginally lower than the last on Public Distribution System (PDS), exports, open market scheme (OMS) and welfare programmes (only 21.1 m tonnes compared to 21.4 m tonnes in the same period in 2007-08).

That has helped beef up Central stocks and enable the goverment to better handle unforeseen calamities, food wise, should they occur before the new Rabi marketing season starting early April and upto mid May, prior to the general elections.

Stocks in the central pool (rice and wheat) in 08-09 (upto January 19) were higher than in the same period of 2007-08, thanks to two fold increase in wheat procurement (78.5 m tonnes). Consequently, the total stocks had almost doubled to about 35.3 m tonnes as on November 1,2008.