Rainfall distribution in most places normal this year: Dr DS Pai, IMD

In an interview to ET Now, Dr DS Pai, IMD, talks about the withdrawal of monsoon for this year. Edited excerpts:

ET Now: The withdrawal of monsoon has started from the northern part of the country. Are we still staring at a large deficit in terms of rainfall?
Dr DS Pai: Till yesterday, the all-India figure was 94% of the long-period average. If you see region-wise, in northwest India it is 102%, and in northeast India it is 82%. In central India it is 100%, in the southern peninsula 91%. Going forward, there will be slight improvement in rainfall over the southern peninsula.

So overall, I think that though it will be around the below-normal category, the rainfall distribution in most of the places — except in places very close to Himalayas, plains of Himalayas like East UP, Bihar, Jharkhand and the Gangetic West Bengal — would be normal.


What should we be expecting for the rest of the year? Also, what about the impact of El Nino?
Going forward, there can be more areas of northwest India where there should be withdrawal of monsoon by around the 15th of October. Around that period, the monsoon should withdraw from the region.

But occasional rainfall activity could be there. But after this, by middle of October or after 20th of October, rainfall will be mainly over the southern peninsula. The onset of northeast monsoon generally happens around 20th October. Thereafter rainfall activity will be mainly over southern peninsula.

There could be occasional rains because of the western disturbance moving across the northwest India. Such activity could occur at the northern most part.