'Rainfall deficiency in October likely to affect sowing, production of rabi crops'

New Delhi: High rainfall deficiency of over 32.6% across the country in October coupled with low reservoir levels could affect the sowing and yield of the primary rabi crops such as wheat and masoor dal adding to inflationary pressure, said economists tracking agriculture.

"Late sowing could affect sentiment and exacerbate stickiness in pulses and cereal inflation," said Aditi Nayar, chief economist ICRA, adding that with reservoir levels low by historical standards, timely rainfall holds the key to a broad-based momentum in rabi sowing.

Even though food inflation rose at 6.56% in September as compared with 9.94% in August, pulses and product prices rose 16.38% in September, compared with 13.04% in August, while inflation in spices remained sticky at over 23%.


The live storage available in 150 reservoirs as per October 26 bulletin of the Central Water Commission, is 80% of the live storage of the corresponding period of last year and 92% of storage of the average of the last 10 years.

Around 14 states - Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Bihar, Nagaland, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu - have lesser storage in their reservoirs over last year.

Rainfall deficiency in southern peninsula and central India was as high as 60.4% and 60% respectively on October 31, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). In northwestern India, rainfall was 44.4% more than normal and eastern India it was 9.1% more than normal in the month of October.

In addition to rainfall, the all India average maximum temperature in October was third highest since 1901, the IMD said.