Rabi crops may get rainfall booster

NEW DELHI: Fresh rainfall expected in the next five days over several parts of north and northwest India and wheat regions further east (including eastern UP) could come as a booster to key Rabi foodgrain crops, oilseed and pulses.

The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has forecast fairly widespread snowfall/rain over J&K and HP in the next 24 hours. Isolated to scattered rain/thundershowers are also expected over adjoining parts of NW India and Uttarakhand. Rainfall is also expected over parts of eastern UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa and the NE states.

Farmers are pinning their hopes on the fresh rain. The early dry spell just after sowing held the potential of upsetting Rabi crop output projections (The government expects a record 78-79 million tonne (mt) wheat output this year). This comes on the back of lower kharif crop acreage and markedly deficient southwest (summer monsoon) rainfall in the agriculturally sensitive month of July. To boot, the rainfall shortage also had a negative impact on the total live water storage, which stood at only 49% (compared to 56% last year) of the full reservoir level (FRL) as on January 15 this year.

Although early January temperatures were suitably frost-free and low enough to keep sowing conditions positive for the wheat crop, deficient winter rain has meant that several wheat regions in the north were unable to get sufficient rain during the usual sowing and post-sowing period.

Overall Rabi crop acreage has gone up by 2.6 million ha to 56.5 m ha compared to last year. Wheat acreage has gone up by 0.1 m ha (27 m ha), coarse cereals acreage by 0.6 m ha (6.6 m ha) and pulses acreage by 0.8 m ha (13.4 m ha) while total Rabi oilseed acreage has gone up by 0.9 m ha (9 m ha) of which mustard alone has shown an increase of 0.8% (6.6 m ha).

Optimism over the fresh showers comes over and above strong foodgrain fundamentals. The government has built a strategic foodgrain reserve of 5 million tonnes in addition to high buffer stocks.