Rabi crops including wheat may face water shortages as reservoirs under last year’s level

NEW DELHI: India’s rabi, or winter-sown, crop including wheat may face water shortages as the nation’s reservoirs are just two-thirds full with the monsoon season nearing an end.

The current reservoir level is in line with the 10-year average and better than the drought years of 2009 and 2012, but way short of last year when the dams were nearly 80% of the full capacity of 155.05 billion cubic metres at this time. While the monsoon brought plenty of rains last year, showers so far in this season is 18% below the 50-year average considered as normal.

Wheat, chana, mustard, maize and pulses are the main rabi crops. If the water shortage affects output, it could lead to acceleration in food inflation that authorities are working hard to contain.

The monsoon has stalled in northern and northwestern India over the past week. The same regions are also facing likely water shortages.

“The northwest India is facing poor situation. Bhakra (Nangal dam) has normal inflows, so impact over Punjab and Haryana will be negligible," said AB Pandya, chairman of state-run Central Water Commission.

These two northern “bread-basket” states are big producers of wheat and rice. The water at the country’s biggest dam may benefit more for Punjab than Haryana, as 90% of Punjab’s farmland is irrigated compared with 60% in the neighbouring state. In Punjab and Haryana, the seasonal rain deficit is 65% and 66%, respectively, while for the overall north and northwestern regions, it is 35%.

“In February-March we might face water shortage in north and northwest India,” said Pandya. In September, state governments could look at the situation and reservoir position before deciding whether or not to announce drought.

Poor rains are likely to have also a big impact on cotton and coarse cereals. Cost of production is expected to rise with high dependence on electricity and diesel to pump water from tube wells.

The commission monitors 85 important reservoirs of the country on a weekly basis. It said Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh and Chhattisgarh have better water levels than at this time last year.

Reservoirs normally fill up rapidly in July and create a water reserve for irrigation, drinking and power generation until the following year's monsoon.