Foodgrain target for 2026-27 cut to 374 MT amid El Nino concerns; Rabi pegged at 178 MT

The government has set a foodgrain production target of 373.93 million tonnes (MT) for 2026-27, 2.63 MT below the 2025-26 estimate. For the upcoming Rabi season, the government has set a foodgrain production target of 177.72 MT, with wheat accounting for the largest share, followed by pulses, coarse cereals and oilseeds.

"Against a target of 362.60 MT for 2025-26, production reached 376.56 MT in 2025-26. In view of El Niño, the target for 2026-27 has been set at 373.93 MT," Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan while addressing the media after the National Agriculture Conference-Rabi Campaign 2026 in New Delhi on Tuesday.

The minister said production planning for the coming season was being undertaken after taking into account reservoir levels, groundwater availability and soil moisture, besides weather conditions. In areas facing water stress, farmers are being encouraged to shift from water-intensive crops towards pulses, oilseeds and millets.


The Centre has also assured states of adequate availability of fertilisers, certified seeds and financial resources for the 2026-27 rabi season, even as uneven monsoon rainfall and the possibility of El Niño pose risks to agricultural production.

Chouhan said the government had been preparing for weather-related risks and would ensure that farmers do not bear the impact of volatility in international fertiliser prices.

Chouhan said states had estimated their total fertiliser requirement for the upcoming rabi season at around 380 lakh metric tonnes, covering urea, DAP, NPK and other fertilisers. Against this demand, more than 163 lakh metric tonnes of fertiliser was currently available in the country, compared with around 122 lakh metric tonnes at the beginning of the rabi season last year, according to the minister.

He said international fertiliser prices had risen sharply but the additional financial burden would not be passed on to Indian farmers.

“The government is continuously monitoring the availability and movement of fertilisers and is in touch with states to ensure timely supplies,” Chouhan said.

El Niño, uneven rainfall remain key risks

The minister said the Centre had started preparations for a possible El Niño-related impact as early as April. According to him, the country's cumulative monsoon rainfall deficit had stood at 14% around August 24-25 but improved to 12% following rainfall over the subsequent three-four days.

He said a rainfall deficit of up to 19% was not categorised as a severe drought under the prevailing meteorological classification. Despite uneven rainfall, the overall kharif sowing area has declined by only around 1%, which Chouhan said indicated that the contingency plans prepared by the Centre, states, ICAR and farmers had helped contain the impact. Rice has recorded the largest decline in acreage, with the sown area down by around 16.32 lakh hectares, while maize, soybean and cotton have also seen some reduction.

At the same time, acreage under pulses, oilseeds and millets has increased, including urad, tur, bajra, jowar, sesame and sunflower, the minister said. Preliminary reports indicate that around 6.11 lakh hectares of cropped area in Karnataka, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat has been affected by excessive rainfall, floods or drought. A detailed scientific assessment of the damage is being undertaken, he said.

Responding to a query from The Economic Times Digital during the press conference, Chouhan said discussions were underway on the potential impact of El Niño conditions and drought-like situations on crop losses and the resulting increase in claims under the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY).

On whether the rural employment guarantee scheme would have adequate funds to meet a potential rise in demand for work, as financial distress and crop losses could push more rural workers towards wage employment, Chouhan said, “VB-G RAM G has enough funds to take care of the situation.”

Centre to send teams to drought- and flood-hit states

The Centre will send special teams to assess crop damage in Karnataka and Maharashtra on October 3 following requests from the states, Chouhan said.

He also said he would visit the affected states to assess the situation.

The government will use the State Disaster Response Fund (SDRF) for immediate relief, while additional assistance under the National Disaster Response Fund would be considered after assessment by central teams and a decision by the high-level committee chaired by the Union Home Minister.

Chouhan said the Centre contributes 75% of SDRF funding, with states contributing the remaining 25%.

For drought-affected farmers whose fields may otherwise remain fallow, the government is also arranging short-duration and low-water-use crop varieties, he said.

Direct procurement proposed when pulses, oilseeds fall below MSP

The Centre has also decided to reduce administrative delays in procurement of pulses and oilseeds under the PM-AASHA framework, Chouhan said.

If market prices fall below the minimum support price, central procurement agencies NAFED and NCCF will be able to enter mandis and begin procurement directly instead of waiting for state agencies to initiate the process, according to the minister.

State agencies can subsequently participate in the procurement process.

The move is aimed at preventing farmers from being forced to sell their produce below MSP during periods of weak market prices, he said.

More than Rs 7,000 crore released to states

The Centre has released more than Rs 7,000 crore to states under the Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana and the Krishonnati Yojana, Chouhan said.

This includes more than Rs 3,000 crore released recently after an earlier allocation of around Rs 4,000 crore.

The minister said the government was trying to ensure that funds reached states during the agricultural season rather than towards the end of the financial year.

Chouhan pushes back against blaming farmers for Delhi-NCR pollution

The minister also strongly objected to what he described as the practice of holding farmers solely responsible for air pollution in Delhi-NCR during the stubble-burning season.

Citing government estimates, Chouhan said the contribution of stubble burning to pollution had declined from around 7% in 2019-20 to about 2.5% currently.

He said farmers themselves did not want to burn crop residue and that the issue should be addressed through engagement, incentives and access to machinery rather than punitive measures.

“Farmers cannot be made the villain for pollution,” Chouhan said, arguing that crop-residue burning was only one of several contributors to air pollution.