Pulses prices surge: Will cheaper imports bring relief to consumers? Stakeholders divided

A sharp increase in the prices of major pulses has renewed debate over whether India should cut import duties to boost supplies and contain food inflation, even as the industry remains divided over whether cheaper imports would actually translate into lower prices for consumers.

Prices of major pulses, including chana, tur, moong, and matar, have risen up to 11% in recent weeks amid concerns over deficient rainfall in key producing states, tighter global supplies, rupee depreciation, and stronger festive demand.

According to industry data, wholesale prices of chana, India’s largest-consumed pulse variety, have risen around 11% over the past month. Tur prices have increased 6.5%, moong 10.6%, and matar around 6%. The increase has raised concerns over supplies, as drought conditions intensify in major pulse-producing states like Maharashtra and Karnataka.


Notably, India imports about 6-7 million tonnes (MT) of pulses annually, accounting for about 18-20% of its consumption, with import expenditure pegged at $3.63 billion. At present, India imposes a 10% import duty on red lentils and chickpeas, and a 30% duty on yellow peas. The government has already allowed duty-free imports of pigeon peas and black gram until March 2027.

India’s total pulse production rose from 24.49 MT in 2023-24 to 25.23 MT in 2024-25, and is estimated at 27.41 MT in 2025-26, according to the third advance estimate. Pulse imports stood at 4.74 MT in 2023-24, increased to 6.50 MT in 2024-25, and are estimated at 6 MT in 2025-26.

‘No immediate supply crisis’

Bimal Kothari, Chairman, Indian Pulses and Grains Association (IPGA), says the rise in pulse prices is driven by three factors: El Niño and drought, disruption in global yellow pea supplies, and rupee depreciation.

“Drought has been declared in Karnataka and 75% of Maharashtra— two major producers of tur and chana in the country. That is one reason for the price rise,” he says. Yellow pea prices have also risen sharply over the past one-and-a-half months after supplies from Russia were disrupted, leaving Canada as the main source, he says.

Kothari also points to the rupee’s over 10% depreciation over the past year as another factor.

Despite the price rise, Kothari says there is no immediate supply crisis. “I am not worried about supplies in 2026. We have enough supplies,” he says, pointing to government stocks of around 20 lakh tonnes of chana and 9-10 lakh tonnes of tur with NAFED and NCCF.

He expects these stocks to help meet festive demand but sees greater risks next year. Kothari also opposes an immediate cut in import duties. “I don’t think the government needs to reduce import duties,” he says, arguing that with duty already at 10%, exporters could raise dollar prices and absorb the benefit. “It would be a wrong decision as the reduction will not benefit consumers, trade or importers. It will primarily benefit exporters,” he says.

Market is pricing weather risk

Shashi Singh, Partner, Agriculture, Food & Agribusiness, PwC India, takes a similar view that the current market is being driven more by uncertainty over future supplies than by an immediate shortage.

“Pulse prices are reacting more to future supply uncertainty than current availability. The market is pricing weather risk, not scarcity,” Singh says. According to him, the current rally reflects a combination of festive demand and supply-side uncertainty. Markets are factoring in rainfall deficiencies in key producing states, concerns around kharif yield, and possible implications for rabi sowing.

At the same time, tighter global supplies of certain pulse varieties have added to price pressures. “While there is no immediate supply crisis, prices are likely to remain firm in the near term until there is greater clarity on domestic crop prospects and replenishment of supplies,” Singh says.

The situation in Karnataka and Maharashtra is particularly important because both are major pulse-producing states. “The concern at this stage is less about current availability and more about the production outlook,” he says, adding that below-normal rainfall has raised questions around yield realisation, and soil moisture levels.

Markets will closely monitor kharif harvest outcomes and rabi sowing conditions. Singh also believes India’s relatively comfortable buffer position provides policymakers with some flexibility. “Buffer stocks do not eliminate structural supply concerns, but they are an effective tool for smoothing market distortions and moderating sharp price spikes if required,” he says.

A production shortfall warning

Former NITI Aayog member and currently professor at ICRIER, Ramesh Chand, is more cautious about the production outlook. “After 11 years, we are facing a situation of rainfall deficiency of more than 10%,” Chand says, adding that the country’s rainfall deficiency was close to 13%.

“In major pulse-producing states, apart from Madhya Pradesh, the deficiency is quite large, particularly in Maharashtra and Karnataka. Therefore, there will certainly be a shortfall in production, particularly in kharif pulses,” he says.

Chand warns that the impact could extend beyond the current kharif crop. “The impact of rainfall deficiency may also extend to the rainy season and could affect chickpea production as well. So, it is quite clear that pulse production is likely to decline. Obviously, when production falls, there will be an impact on prices,” he says.

The vulnerability is structural because most pulse cultivation remains rain-fed. “Most of the area under pulses is rain-fed and not irrigated. Therefore, fluctuations in production continue to occur,” Chand says.

Rising incomes and greater awareness of protein-rich foods are also driving demand.

Chand says the government has two main tools to address production shortfalls: buffer stocks and imports. “Other than these two options, there is no third option to stabilise prices and minimise inflation,” he says.

However, India’s pulse buffer is much smaller than its wheat and rice stocks. Chand expects the government to combine stock releases with imports, which are currently duty-free. “In the current situation, the government will try to moderate the impact of the production shortfall by releasing stocks into the market. It will also try to make up for the deficiency through imports,” he says.

“Despite all these measures, however, I feel there will be pressure on pulse prices,” Chand adds.

Notably, in 2017, a committee under Chand was constituted to recommend the appropriate government buffer-stock level for pulses and review it according to production, disposal and prices.

Consistent trade policy could hold greater significance

Stakeholders argue that the larger problem is not simply the level of import duties but the unpredictability of India’s pulse import policy. “In edible oils, India is a regular importer, and the trade arrangements are more permanent. Suppliers know that India is going to buy from them,” Chand says.

“In the case of pulses, however, our trade policy has not been consistent. Sometimes we impose import bans and sometimes we impose high import duties,” he adds. Such policy uncertainty can discourage regular supply relationships with overseas producers.

“Because of this, we do not have regular imports from these countries, and the market suffers whenever there are such policy changes,” he says. Chand believes a more predictable import regime could allow India to respond faster when domestic production falls.

The government’s decision to allow duty-free imports of some pulses will provide some relief, he says, but will not completely eliminate the pressure. “The government has already declared that pulse imports will be duty-free. So, the impact, to some extent, will be mitigated; it will not be fully mitigated, but duty-free imports will provide some relief,” Chand says.

Meanwhile, the department is yet to respond to The Economic Times Digital request for a meeting with the Consumer Affairs Secretary to discuss pulses prices.

Farmers see sharper price rise ahead

Maharashtra-based farmer leader Anil Ghanwat is more pessimistic about the production outlook. “Production will be lower. The government will have to import, and prices will shoot up significantly,” Ghanwat says.

He says traders and processors have already started responding to expectations of lower arrivals. According to him, processors may be willing to pay higher prices to secure supplies because they are concerned about shortages later in the season.

He expects imports could become necessary as early as December if domestic arrivals disappoint.

“As soon as harvesting starts and they see fewer arrivals in the market, they will realise the situation and start importing,” he says.

Yellow peas add to the policy dilemma

Yellow peas, a substitute for chana in food processing, have emerged as a pressure point as disrupted Russian supplies push up prices and increase dependence on Canada. Kothari opposes cutting the 30% duty, saying a revival of Russian exports could ease prices. Singh, however, sees yellow peas as important for balancing the pulse market and favours a stable import policy and diversified sourcing.

The import duty debate highlights a policy trade-off: lower duties could make imports cheaper and contain consumer prices during supply shortages but may reduce farmers’ incentive to grow pulses.

Kothari says higher prices could encourage farmers to expand pulse acreage if moisture conditions are favourable; otherwise they could shift to mustard and wheat. “India needs more pulses at the moment, not wheat,” he says.

Real test after kharif

For now, buffer stocks, existing imports, and duty-free access for some pulses may help meet festive demand. The bigger test will come with the kharif harvest and rabi sowing. “This year, we need to closely watch rabi. If we get a good rabi crop, the situation should be fine next year,” Kothari says.

Chand expects lower output, rising demand, and rain dependence to keep prices firm. A predictable import policy could secure supplies, but policymakers will have to balance consumer inflation with farmers’ incentive to grow pulses, he says.