National food security mission impossible
The Centre’s grandiose booster plan for agri produce, the Rs.4,883-crore National Food Security Mission (NFSM), seems to be built on targets that hardly keep pace with the projected increase in domestic demand by the end of the 11th Five-Year Plan.
By Prabha Jagannathan, TNN |
NEW DELHI: The Centre’s grandiose booster plan for agri produce, the Rs.4,883-crore National Food Security Mission (NFSM), seems to be built on targets that hardly keep pace with the projected increase in domestic demand by the end of the 11th Five-Year Plan.
The NFSM was launched last year and aims at a 4% growth for the farm sector by hiking rice, wheat and pulses production by 10 million tonnes, 8 million tonnes and 2 million tonnes, respectively, by 2012.
NFSM for wheat, for instance, has been launched in 138 districts countrywide to hike production significantly by the end of the 11th Plan period.
However, the farm ministry has not specified –– despite discussions at a secretary-level meeting with the food, PDS and consumer affairs ministry last year –– a concrete base year over which the hike is projected. Significantly, it shot down question of using peak wheat production year 1999-2000 as the base year.
The country produced a record 76.5 million tonnes in 1999-2000.
Wheat production descended to stagnant levels for five long years, registering production levels of just around 70 million tonnes. This had worried the food ministry, which is acutely conscious and apprehensive of simultaneously leapfrogging annual consumption levels, spelling enormous food subsidy bills, unless urgent action is taken to boost production in the long term.
Sources said the farm ministry had “suggested 2005-06 as a base year.” During 05-06, wheat production was even lower than 70 million tonnes, at only 69.3 million tonnes. In comparison, the production in 2003-04 stood at 72 million tonnes and in 2006-07, it went up to 74.8 million tonne, but the farm ministry avoided these benchmarks.
The farm ministry conveniently pegged itself a base production level of around 70 million tonnes. In effect, the NFSM for wheat will only ring in 78 million tonnes of wheat production up to 2012, although the farm ministry’s own projection of domestic demand is a dangerously close 77.4 million tonnes, a surplus of just 0.64 million tonnes.
The figures put out by the nodal ministry on the wheat NFSM appear specifically tailored to accommodate the unambitious targets.
With production at 74.8 million tonnes, this would mean a demand gap of 1.2 million tonne. Even by the “behaviouristic approach” used for the projections, the demand base in the launch year far exceeds the production goals.
The NFSM was launched last year and aims at a 4% growth for the farm sector by hiking rice, wheat and pulses production by 10 million tonnes, 8 million tonnes and 2 million tonnes, respectively, by 2012.
NFSM for wheat, for instance, has been launched in 138 districts countrywide to hike production significantly by the end of the 11th Plan period.
However, the farm ministry has not specified –– despite discussions at a secretary-level meeting with the food, PDS and consumer affairs ministry last year –– a concrete base year over which the hike is projected. Significantly, it shot down question of using peak wheat production year 1999-2000 as the base year.
The country produced a record 76.5 million tonnes in 1999-2000.
Wheat production descended to stagnant levels for five long years, registering production levels of just around 70 million tonnes. This had worried the food ministry, which is acutely conscious and apprehensive of simultaneously leapfrogging annual consumption levels, spelling enormous food subsidy bills, unless urgent action is taken to boost production in the long term.
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It is now resigning itself to sustained high import bills for wheat and mulling the possibility of launching an awareness campaign on sustained high food prices from now on. Little wonder, then, that the food ministry has had to seriously consider hiking Central Issue Prices (CIP) and grain cutbacks for APL beneficiaries to meet the inevitable crunch.Sources said the farm ministry had “suggested 2005-06 as a base year.” During 05-06, wheat production was even lower than 70 million tonnes, at only 69.3 million tonnes. In comparison, the production in 2003-04 stood at 72 million tonnes and in 2006-07, it went up to 74.8 million tonne, but the farm ministry avoided these benchmarks.
The farm ministry conveniently pegged itself a base production level of around 70 million tonnes. In effect, the NFSM for wheat will only ring in 78 million tonnes of wheat production up to 2012, although the farm ministry’s own projection of domestic demand is a dangerously close 77.4 million tonnes, a surplus of just 0.64 million tonnes.
The figures put out by the nodal ministry on the wheat NFSM appear specifically tailored to accommodate the unambitious targets.
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The demand and production increase projection figures are not too credible, either. The USDA, for instance, projected a much higher domestic demand from 2007-08, and that would make a mockery of the annual production levels the farm ministry has set itself under the NFSM. For 2007-08, for instance, the domestic demand cited by the food ministry is 71.19 million tonnes while the supply is pegged at 74.8 million tonnes, leaving a surplus of 3.7 million tonnes. For the same year, though, the USDA has projected a far higher demand level of 76 million tonnes, a gap of 5 million tonnes. With production at 74.8 million tonnes, this would mean a demand gap of 1.2 million tonne. Even by the “behaviouristic approach” used for the projections, the demand base in the launch year far exceeds the production goals.
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The targets for rice are no different. Rice production was 91.7 million tonnes in 2005-06 and 92.7 million tonnes in 2006-07 but the farm ministry has ignored that and settled for a base of 88 million tonnes. That means that the NFSM will only garner 98 million tonnes in production up to 2012, when the projected domestic demand is 98.79 million tonnes, leaving a gap of 0.79 million tonnes.Download
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