Most parts of India should prepare for below-normal monsoon rains in 2014: IMD

PUNE: Most parts of India should prepare for below-normal monsoon rains this year, Pune-based Regional Climate Centre (RCC) of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said in its forecast for South Asia.

It has forecast deficient rainfall in South Asia as a whole, and indicated that rainfall would be below average in close to 80% of the country. The prediction as made a day before the official monsoon forecast of the IMD is scheduled to be released. RCC has observed that this year there is consensus about the prospects of El Nino phenomenon which has often disrupted monsoons in the past.

"Below normal rainfall is likely over broad areas of western, central and southwestern parts of South Asia and some areas in the northeastern most parts of the region. Normal rainfall is likely over broad areas of northwestern and eastern parts and some island areas in the southernmost parts of the region," said DS Pai, head of India's Long Range Forecast.

The forecast indicates that most parts of India will have below normal monsoon except the eastern parts of Uttar Pradesh, North Eastern states, West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and parts of J&K and Punjab. The RCC has used a large number of statistical and dynamical models to generate forecast for the region. Many countries in South Asia did not have time series data of rainfall and other climatological parameters, while some countries like Afghanistan struggle to get even the internet connection.