Monsoon revival lifts kharif hopes, but experts say El Niño threat is far from over

The southwest monsoon has staged a strong comeback in July after one of its weakest starts in recent years, sharply reducing India’s rainfall deficit and lifting optimism over the ongoing kharif season. However, experts caution that the recovery, while encouraging, doesn’t eliminate the risks associated with El Niño. They say that the next few weeks will be crucial for crop development and overall agricultural output.

Following above-normal rainfall during the first week of July, rainfall deficit in the country narrowed to about 12% as of July 9 from nearly 40% at the end of June, as per India Meteorological Department.

The government on Tuesday reviewed the monsoon situation in the country at a high-level meeting, chaired by P.K. Mishra, Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister, where ministries were directed to prepare district-level contingency plans to deal with any adverse impact of El Niño and prolonged monsoon weakness.


While the narrowing rainfall deficit has eased immediate concerns, experts say it is far too early to conclude that El Niño’s influence has weakened. Agricultural policy expert Devinder Sharma says El Nino has only begun to develop and is expected to strengthen through July and August, with its strongest effects likely to be visible during October and November. “It is too early to conclude that the impact of El Niño is weakening,” he says.

Sharma says that rainfall averages alone don’t determine agricultural outcomes. “What matters is where the rain falls, whether it is evenly distributed, and whether it arrives during critical crop growth stages.”

The early rainfall deficit has already affected sowing in many regions, he says, while warning against complacency simply due to the improvement in national rainfall numbers.

The government earlier this week reported that the number of rainfall-deficient districts has declined from 262 to 178 after widespread rains across several parts of the country. Kharif sowing is just over 20% behind last year’s figure due to June’s prolonged dry spell. The planted area stands at 35.09 million hectares compared to 44.28 million hectares a year ago. The area under paddy was down by roughly 13%, cotton by around 23%, and oilseeds close to 39%.

Meanwhile, the global weather agencies, including the World Meteorological Organisation, continue to warn about the potential impacts of El Niño on weather patterns across the world, reinforcing the need for continued vigilance.
Rainfall status (weak and season)

Source- IMD
Sustained and frequent rainfall key
Former Agriculture Secretary Siraj Hussain says the well-distributed rainfall during the first week of July is expected to provide a significant boost to kharif sowing across north India while supporting crop growth in southern and western regions, where planting had largely begun in June.

Hussain, however, cautions that sustained and frequent rainfall will be crucial for healthy crop development. “Rains in the first week of July have been good and well distributed. This will certainly help in sowing in North India and better growth of crops in areas in the south and west where farmers would have sown their crops in June. But frequent rainfall is needed for the growth of plants. An unusually long dry spell would still cause lower yield. The good news is that the reservoirs would have been recharged to some extent.”

According to Pushan Sharma, Director, Crisil Intelligence, the key concern is rain distribution during July-September. Despite the recovery in monsoon, the IMD still forecasts a below-normal monsoon at nearly 90% of long period average (LPA), with elevated risks of dry spells, heat stress, and weather variability, he says.

“Several districts are still rainfall-deficient in early July, including pockets in Bihar, Telangana, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu. Monitoring is increasingly focused on reservoir levels, a key indicator for irrigation support. As of July 2, India’s reservoir storage was about nearly 1.4% below normal and storage in these states remained weak, around 9% in Bihar, 21% in Telangana, 61% in West Bengal, and 16% in Tamil Nadu below the normal storage levels, suggesting storage has not yet fully caught up with rainfall recovery,” he says.

The bigger concern now, experts say, is not the overall quantum of rainfall, but how evenly it is distributed across regions during the remainder of the monsoon season. “Around 56% of India's cultivated area is irrigated, so the impact is relatively lower in irrigated regions. However, rain-fed areas still depend on timely and well-distributed rainfall. If rainfall remains favorable during July, a significant part of the earlier shortfall can still be recovered,” says M.K. Dhanuka, Chairman of Dhanuka Agritech.

Shift towards micro-level planning
Though monsoon conditions have improved, a weak to moderate El Niño is still forecast for July-August, the most critical period. As the focus shifts to shifts to crop performance in the coming weeks, experts say close monitoring and timely planning will be key for the final agricultural output.

Unlike conventional drought response measures that primarily focus on relief after crop losses occur, the government is now focusing on localised preparedness.

Dhanuka says district-level planning recognises that the impact of a weak monsoon varies significantly across regions depending on rainfall patterns, irrigation coverage and cropping systems. “At the ground level, the biggest challenge is ensuring real-time coordination between weather agencies, agriculture departments, local administration, and input suppliers so that support reaches farmers when it is needed the most. Timely availability of agricultural inputs and effective farmer advisories will be critical,” he says.

“We have already seen that with improved rainfall in July, sowing has started picking up, and demand for agricultural inputs is expected to improve further. The supply situation has also improved, with no major constraints at present. If rainfall remains uneven, rapid data sharing, decentralised decision-making, and stronger coordination between the centre, states, and district administrations will become more important,” he adds.

Notably, some of the strongest El Niño events on record occurred in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.

Rajib Chakraborty, National President of the Soluble Fertilizer Industry Association (SFIA), suggests micro-level interventions to mitigate El Niño impact. “The first priority should be the identification of vulnerable districts based on rainfall forecasts, reservoir status, groundwater availability, and crop patterns,” says Chakraborty. “Equally important is identifying the crops most susceptible to moisture stress so that timely, crop-specific interventions can be initiated before yield losses occur.”

“Timely planning and availability of critical agricultural inputs are essential for mitigating the impact of El Niño,” he says. “District-level contingency plans should ensure uninterrupted supplies of suitable seeds, water-soluble fertilisers, micronutrients, biostimulants, and irrigation inputs, allowing farmers to quickly adapt to changing climatic conditions and maintain crop productivity.”

Chakraborty also points to inadequate drought response measures. “Usual drought response measures are based on a compensation model such as loan restructuring, declaration of drought, and alternative employment generation, which are often found inadequate.”

Preparedness on seeds, diesel and livestock
According to agri expert Sharma, contingency planning should focus on three immediate priorities: adequate seed stocks so farmers can quickly switch to alternative crops if paddy sowing becomes unviable; diesel availability to ensure irrigation through pump sets where rainfall remains inadequate; and protection of livestock, including fodder, water availability and cattle camps, as livestock often suffer the most during droughts.

Sharma of Crisil Intelligence says, “Districts are preparing localised contingencies, including short-duration or drought-tolerant seeds, climate-resilient crops, water-use management, and real-time advisories. States are also encouraged to diversify crops, including pulses and millets, where conditions remain uncertain. This is visible in advisories from Odisha and Chhattisgarh to shift paddy from 120-day to 60-70-day varieties, Telangana’s push for non-paddy crops where irrigation is not assured, Madhya Pradesh’s focus on short-duration crops, and Chhattisgarh’s incentives for pulses and oilseeds. Under anticipated El Niño conditions, the government has targeted seed distribution of 2.29 lakh quintals, with 1.26 lakh quintals already available by May, supporting the seed replacement rate.”

Experts say that while sowing remains below compared to last year, rains should aid recovery through better seed and fertiliser availability and contingency crop plans. Even with improved acreage, the bigger risk is moisture stress during flowering and pod-setting. This could hit yields of oilseeds, cotton and pulses in rainfed areas of Maharashtra and Gujarat. The outcome will hinge on rainfall in districts with uneven rains and weak reservoir storage. They expect the government keep a close watch and tweak its response as the monsoon progresses.