Monsoon likely to retreat from Rajasthan by weekend: IMD

New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department ( IMD) has forecast that the monsoon withdrawal will begin from the country in the next few days. Meanwhile, private weather forecaster Skymet said the withdrawal had begun on Wednesday.

“Conditions are becoming favourable for withdrawal of southwest monsoon from some parts of northwest India during three-four days,” the Met department said.

On Monday, IMD director general Laxman Singh Rathore had said that the monsoon’s retreat from western Rajasthan, the region from where the weather system starts its withdrawal from India, would take place by the weekend. The four-month southwest monsoon runs from June to September and is the main source of irrigation for India’s farms.

GP Sharma, vice president of meteorology, Skymet Weather Services, said however that “Monsoon withdrawal has commenced from northwest India, from parts of Punjab, Haryana, west Rajasthan and Kutch today.”

He said conditions were favourable for withdrawal from J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, west Uttar Pradesh, Delhi NCR, east Rajasthan and Gujarat in the next few days. Last year, the monsoon started withdrawing from Rajasthan on September 9 and from Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and Gujarat on September 19.

Over the past several years, the monsoon has lingered on in northern India until the last week of September. The prevalence of dry weather for five straight days and the reduction in moisture content are among the main factors considered for announcing the monsoon's withdrawal.

Another condition is the setting of anti-cyclonic circulation over western Rajasthan. Complete withdrawal of the monsoon from India usually takes place after October 1. Sharma said warm moist southeasterly winds were being replaced by dry and relatively cooler northwesterly winds.

“Bikaner, Barmer and Bhuj have seen no rainfall for 12 consecutive days. In Jaisalmer and Jodhpur, there has been no rainfall since the last six days. The humidity has also dropped,” he said. In the next 24 hours, the IMD forecast heavy rainfall to occur at a few places over northeast and east India.