Late pickup in rains to bridge overall deficit

NEW DELHI: The overall rain deficit is likely to narrow down further with a late surge in rains bringing vigorous downpours in the Himalayan region, central and southern parts of the country and eastern states. The sudden revival has helped bridge rain deficit from around 30% to 16%.

Rains in August are crucial since IMD has predicted a drier September due to the onset of an El Nino weather phenomenon, which disrupts rainfall. July and August contribute 65% of the total seasonal rains while June and September account for the remaining 35% rains of the four-month monsoon period. The threat of El Nino has got stronger with climate indicators in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain close to El Nino thresholds.

According to the latest update of Australian Bureau of Meteorology, which is widely acclaimed for its forecast about El Nino, indicators during the past fortnight such as the southern oscillation Index and trade wind strength have shown renewed trends that are consistent with the early stages of an El Nino event.

However, the rain outlook for the coming week looks promising with major parts of the country likely to get good rains.

Low pressure over Bay of Bengal is likely to bring heavy showers in the eastern and central parts of the country.

"In next three-four days vigorous rains in Madhya Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Odisha, parts of Rajasthan and the southern peninsula will reduce the deficiency. However, conditions in Punjab and Haryana, which have been facing severe rain deficiency are unlikely to improve much," said an IMD official.

Rains in August have also sped up sowing operations in the country which were trailing due to dry spells in June and July.

Rice, which contributes to around 70% of total kharif production, has now crossed the normal acreage by 1.71 million hectares.

However, area covered under rice is lower by 4% at 30.77 million hectare as against 31.91 million hectares in the year-ago period.

"Rains are likely to lash the rice growing regions of Odisha, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal in the next few days improving the crop condition. However, late sowing in some areas will affect overall production with September likely to remain relatively drier," said R S Sharma, a senior scientist, Agricultural Policy Research Institute.

Pulses cultivation, which is down by 12% at 8.53 million hectare from 9.73 million hectares a year ago, is likely to improve in the coming days with moong sowing gaining momentum in Rajasthan, which contributes 45% to total production.