India to soon give decadal climate forecast: M Rajeevan, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences

According to preliminary indicators, India is likely to get a good monsoon in 2020 as weather phenomenon El Nino is expected to remain neutral. In the background of climate change, the country will soon give climate forecast for a decade as it has societal relevance and application. The decadal climate forecast will be restricted at research level. M Rajeevan, secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences said, "We will be starting a new programme in the country. The idea of decadal climate forecast is new. It has societal relevance and application. Many countries are already giving decadal forecast and we do not want to remain behind." He was speaking after the inauguration of the 6th International Conference on Climate Services (ICCS6) in Pune.

The meteorologists in the country already have been giving climate projections for 50 year to 100 years using the coupled climate models. "Our scientists are already giving projections for year 2100 or say 2070. At decadal level there is some skill and lot of fundamental work is being done. For giving decadal forecast, we will have to use coupled models and the signals for research will mostly come from the deep oceans," said Rajeevan.

To begin with the decadal climate forecast will be given at the national level and depending upon its success, the Ministry will consider its downscaling to state or district levels. "There are small signals about El Nino. But mostly, it will remain neutral. Th Jamstec (Japan Agency for Marine Earth Science and Technology) model is showing possibility of another positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which should help Indian summer monsoon," said Rajeevan. Agencies like the Climate Prediction Centre of the US and Bureau of Meteorology, Australia have said that El Nino is not active at present and likely to remain neutral in the coming months.