IMD sees above-normal heatwave Maydays

Large parts of the country will witness above-normal heatwave days during May, even as rainfall during the month will be 10% more than normal, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). However, an increase in western disturbances is likely to keep maximum temperatures under check, it said on Friday.

Night temperatures are expected to stay higher than usual in most regions.

“We are expecting more western disturbances and more thunderstorm activity in May. This is not necessarily linked to the evolving El Niño,” said Mrityunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology, IMD.


Average rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be above normal, at 110% of the long-period average, the weather department said in its monthly outlook for May. Normal to above-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country except some parts of east and northeast India and east central India, where below normal rainfall is likely.

“We are expecting more western disturbances and more thunderstorm activity in May. This is not necessarily linked to the evolving El Niño,” said Mrityunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology, IMD.

Average rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be above normal, at 110% of the long-period average, the weather department said in its monthly outlook for May. Normal to above-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country except some parts of east and northeast India and east central India, where below normal rainfall is likely.

Several areas in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, some parts of the foothills of the Himalayas and east coast states are expected to witness above normal heatwave days.

Madhya Pradesh, southern Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, which otherwise are prone to heatwaves, are expected to witness fewer heatwave days than normal. While these areas will witness heatwaves, the number could be less than normal, said Mohapatra

Maximum temperatures are expected to remain normal to below normal across large parts of the country in May, offering some relief from extreme heat, according to the IMD. However, above-normal daytime temperatures are likely in southern peninsular India, parts of the northeast and northwest India.

Night temperatures, meanwhile, are expected to stay higher than usual in most regions. Some pockets of northwest and central India, along with adjoining peninsular and northeastern areas, may however record normal to below-normal minimum temperatures, according to the weather department.

The neutral conditions in the Pacific are gradually transitioning towards El Niño, with climate models indicating its development during the southwest monsoon season, Mohapatra said.

The El Niño climate pattern, marked by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, triggers drought-like conditions, threatening a below-normal monsoon, reduces agricultural output and increases food inflation.

At the same time, Mohapatra said, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions prevail, with a positive phase likely to emerge towards the latter part of the monsoon, which is known to give a boost to monsoon rainfall in India.