India could be net rice importer by 2020
India could be inching towards becoming a net rice importer by 2020, an Assocham study has warned.
By ET Bureau |
NEW DELHI: India could be inching towards becoming a net rice importer by 2020, an Assocham study has warned. Rice Report of 2009, brought out by The Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) warns that India might become a net importer of Rice by 2020 in case it fails to maintain 1.75% per annum growth in its yield for next 10 years.
The rice yield growth in India at current rate is estimated at 1.18% and needs to be accelerated at 1.75% consistently for a decade, otherwise at 1.18% growth rate, India���s rice production would reach at levels of 108 million tones by 2020 against its projected requirement of 118 million tones.
In such a scenario, India would naturally become a net importer of rice, forewarns the ASSOCHAM Rice Report of 2009, findings of which are released here today by its President, Mr. Sajjan Jindal.
The situation is likely to worsen in the coming time if the current scenario of faster growth in consumption over production continues in future. If remedial measures are not taken on timely and targeted manner, it will challenge the self sufficiency of the country in rice. Yield growth is likely to slowdown if the new high yielding varieties are not introduced in a time bound manner and efforts to improve the irrigation facilities are delayed.
Consumption, on the other hand, is expected grow at a rapid pace in the country even if there is slight decline in per capita consumption population growth will keep pushing it. The consumption growth is likely to outpace production increase, which might hurt the exports of the country and in case of pronounced slowdown in productivity growth it will inevitably lead to insecurity and deficiency on food front.
If we presume less severe conditions for next decade and expect population growth to decline to 1.6% and assume per capita consumption to remain steady at current 78.5 kg per year, the country will still require about 109 million tonnes of rice in 2020, the study says. Further, if the acreage remains stagnant in the next decade and the country manages to keep the average yield growth of 1.18% of the last decade in the forthcoming years, the production is likely to grow to about 108 million tonnes. So, in such a case, the country will become net importer of rice.
The report, therefore, suggests that there is a dire need to increase production of rice to cope with the growing demand with increasing population.
The rice yield growth in India at current rate is estimated at 1.18% and needs to be accelerated at 1.75% consistently for a decade, otherwise at 1.18% growth rate, India���s rice production would reach at levels of 108 million tones by 2020 against its projected requirement of 118 million tones.
In such a scenario, India would naturally become a net importer of rice, forewarns the ASSOCHAM Rice Report of 2009, findings of which are released here today by its President, Mr. Sajjan Jindal.
The situation is likely to worsen in the coming time if the current scenario of faster growth in consumption over production continues in future. If remedial measures are not taken on timely and targeted manner, it will challenge the self sufficiency of the country in rice. Yield growth is likely to slowdown if the new high yielding varieties are not introduced in a time bound manner and efforts to improve the irrigation facilities are delayed.
Consumption, on the other hand, is expected grow at a rapid pace in the country even if there is slight decline in per capita consumption population growth will keep pushing it. The consumption growth is likely to outpace production increase, which might hurt the exports of the country and in case of pronounced slowdown in productivity growth it will inevitably lead to insecurity and deficiency on food front.
If we presume less severe conditions for next decade and expect population growth to decline to 1.6% and assume per capita consumption to remain steady at current 78.5 kg per year, the country will still require about 109 million tonnes of rice in 2020, the study says. Further, if the acreage remains stagnant in the next decade and the country manages to keep the average yield growth of 1.18% of the last decade in the forthcoming years, the production is likely to grow to about 108 million tonnes. So, in such a case, the country will become net importer of rice.
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The report, therefore, suggests that there is a dire need to increase production of rice to cope with the growing demand with increasing population.
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