First monsoon showers below average in east

The southwest monsoon is making steady strides in its first phase with Konkan, central Maharashtra , most of Karnataka, Kerala, Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra up to Visakhapatnam coming under its ambit. While the Arabian Sea has been flush with cyclonic circulations (one intensifying into a low pressure), the Bay of Bengal branch of monsoon is yet to see any significant cyclogenesis (formation of cyclonic circulations). The coming week may correct some scarcity with a low pressure system seen developing over north Bay by Wednesday.

The latest numeric weather prediction suggests a movement along the east coast initially but circumnavigating Orissa and Gangetic Bengal towards Bangladesh and then on to northeast India. Nevertheless , the weather system is likely to contribute albeit modestly in supporting monsoon in east. The west coast would remain under widespread showers, right from north Kerala to Konkan. The low pressure that entered Saurashtra on Sunday morning which lies there and over the adjoining Arabian Sea area associated with an offshore trough along the west coast (elongated regions where opposing winds meet, the moisture influx causes turbulence or inclement weather ) would support the rainfall.

Andhra would have to make do with scattered rainfall due to a weak Bay of Bengal branch of monsoon. Tamil Nadu will now fall behind in receiving monsoon showers, the state being a rain shadow area for the season. The northwest India, which is still a few weeks away from witnessing monsoonal rains, will behold scattered rains under the aegis of a passing western disturbance (moisture-bearing clouds travelling east). The Himalayas in the region will get light isolated rainfall while dust/ thunder storms would prevail over the plains.

Temperatures are 2-3 degrees below normal in northwest plains owing to wet weather but would see a rebound by mid-week as temperatures inch up along with high humidity causing discomfort. The monsoon has fared well in the first days as south peninsula, central and northwest India clocked above normal rainfall by 59%, 17% and 15% respectively. In east and northeast India, rains were below normal by 32%. If this trend stays, this would be the second year in continuation when the region would have scanty rains.

(The author is Skymet CEO)