Fears of major crop damage recede as met predicts revival of monsoon
The monsoon, which had played truant in southern and western India after early enthusiasm, is likely to revive soon, abating fears of a major drop in production of oil seeds, pulses and rice in large parts of the country.
By ET Bureau |
NEW DELHI: The monsoon, which had played truant in southern and western India after early enthusiasm, is likely to revive soon, abating fears of a major drop in production of oil seeds, pulses and rice in large parts of the country, reports Our Bureau in New Delhi.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the rains are likely to gather momentum around Sunday. In fact, breaking a disconcertingly long dry spell, it���s been raining in most parts of Maharashtra, including Mumbai, for the past couple of days.
A low pressure area over west-central and adjoining north-west Bay of Bengal around July 27 could mark the revival of monsoon activity, IMD told a multi-expert Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) on Friday.
���Rainfall activity is likely to increase considerably over central and adjoining peninsular India, particularly over Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra... it is also likely to increase along the west coast and Gujarat, with the possibility of heavy to very heavy rainfall,��� the agency maintained. The turnaround, if it happens, should be a welcome relief for the government, which is battling double-digit inflation and does not want scanty rains to hit crop production.
Rains have been scanty in 15 out of the country���s 36 meteorological sub-divisions. Since the beginning of the monsoon on June 1 till July 23, rainfall across the country has been 2% short of the long period average (LPA) of 89 cm. For July 17-23, the deficit was 33%. Northwest India has seen bounteous rains since June 1 ��� 43% more than the LPA ��� while central India and the southern peninsula witnessed shortfalls of 15% and 32%, respectively.
Rainfall was 62% below LPA in Marathwada. The shortfall was 49% in madhya Maharashtra and 43% in Kerala.
Poor monsoons in the first half of July have already affected the prices of pulses and sugar. Between July 1-15, lack of rains in the sowing period for pulses in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka ���which together account for 65% of the country���s kharif pulses output ��� pushed up the prices by a good Rs 300-400/quintal, pegging moong at a high of around Rs 3,125/quintal, urad at Rs 3,200/quintal and tur dal in the range of Rs 3,200-3,225/quintal.
According to Friday���s data released by the agriculture ministry, pulses acreage has come down to 63.8 lakh hectares this year compared to 77.8 lakh hectares in the corresponding period last year. Normally, around 109 lakh hectares come under pulses during each kharif season. ���If the rains don���t revive to boost sowing, the prices of pulses will be driven up higher on projections of lower output,��� commodity watchers said.
Meanwhile, reports of poor rains in Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat have also boosted northward the prices of soyabean and groundnut. Overall oilseed acreage is also down this year at 134.5 lakh hectares compared to 136.9 lakh hectares last year, with the fall mainly in groundnut. With soyabean sowing at crucial stages in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh, rains would be beneficial to the soya crop.
Significantly, there are also reports of transplantation of key kharif staple, paddy, being impacted adversely in both Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Although the CWWG was told that acreage till this week was 170.1 lakh hectares, much higher than last year���s 143.1 lakh hectares, rains are crucial for that to translate into output. ���Unless there are rains in the next few days, the paddy crop is likely to be affected,��� commodity watchers said. In some other parts, there are reports of heavy rains affecting the crop.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the rains are likely to gather momentum around Sunday. In fact, breaking a disconcertingly long dry spell, it���s been raining in most parts of Maharashtra, including Mumbai, for the past couple of days.
A low pressure area over west-central and adjoining north-west Bay of Bengal around July 27 could mark the revival of monsoon activity, IMD told a multi-expert Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) on Friday.
���Rainfall activity is likely to increase considerably over central and adjoining peninsular India, particularly over Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra... it is also likely to increase along the west coast and Gujarat, with the possibility of heavy to very heavy rainfall,��� the agency maintained. The turnaround, if it happens, should be a welcome relief for the government, which is battling double-digit inflation and does not want scanty rains to hit crop production.
Rains have been scanty in 15 out of the country���s 36 meteorological sub-divisions. Since the beginning of the monsoon on June 1 till July 23, rainfall across the country has been 2% short of the long period average (LPA) of 89 cm. For July 17-23, the deficit was 33%. Northwest India has seen bounteous rains since June 1 ��� 43% more than the LPA ��� while central India and the southern peninsula witnessed shortfalls of 15% and 32%, respectively.
Rainfall was 62% below LPA in Marathwada. The shortfall was 49% in madhya Maharashtra and 43% in Kerala.
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The marked rainfall deficit till the crucial sowing month of July has already impacted prices of commodities, including pulses, oilseeds (groundnut and soyabean), sugar, maize and even rice, threatening high retail prices as tight output fears loom. Spurred by lower output fears and fresh rainfall deficit data, maize August futures were up 1.18% at Rs 1,075 per 100 kg on NCDEX on Friday. Agriculture ministry data showed that acreage under corn was 4.10 million hectares till July 18, compared with 4.27 million hectares in the same period last year.Poor monsoons in the first half of July have already affected the prices of pulses and sugar. Between July 1-15, lack of rains in the sowing period for pulses in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka ���which together account for 65% of the country���s kharif pulses output ��� pushed up the prices by a good Rs 300-400/quintal, pegging moong at a high of around Rs 3,125/quintal, urad at Rs 3,200/quintal and tur dal in the range of Rs 3,200-3,225/quintal.
According to Friday���s data released by the agriculture ministry, pulses acreage has come down to 63.8 lakh hectares this year compared to 77.8 lakh hectares in the corresponding period last year. Normally, around 109 lakh hectares come under pulses during each kharif season. ���If the rains don���t revive to boost sowing, the prices of pulses will be driven up higher on projections of lower output,��� commodity watchers said.
Meanwhile, reports of poor rains in Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat have also boosted northward the prices of soyabean and groundnut. Overall oilseed acreage is also down this year at 134.5 lakh hectares compared to 136.9 lakh hectares last year, with the fall mainly in groundnut. With soyabean sowing at crucial stages in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh, rains would be beneficial to the soya crop.
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Lower sugarcane planting has also been spurred by poor monsoons in cane-growing regions. Planting, thus far, is pegged at a lower 43.2 lakh hectares compared with 52.8 lakh hectares during the year-ago period. The lower planting is expected to tighten sugar prices by 20-25% in the medium-to-long term. Spot prices for sugar in Delhi ruled in the Rs 1,730/quintal on July 18-19, a Rs 125-135/quintal increase.Significantly, there are also reports of transplantation of key kharif staple, paddy, being impacted adversely in both Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Although the CWWG was told that acreage till this week was 170.1 lakh hectares, much higher than last year���s 143.1 lakh hectares, rains are crucial for that to translate into output. ���Unless there are rains in the next few days, the paddy crop is likely to be affected,��� commodity watchers said. In some other parts, there are reports of heavy rains affecting the crop.
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