Farm production likely to slip from last year’s level

NEW DELHI: India���s production estimate of foodgrains, oilseeds and other commercial crops is unlikely to reflect a surge in the final projection, as was the case last year, stoking fears that chances of dip in the farm sector output could be more real than what many would have thought.

���The production estimate may not be revised upwards sharply in the final projection from the second advance estimate. Last year, the situation was different and the Centre was more conservative initially,��� a senior government official said. ���Overall production of farm commodities is likely to decline from the last year���s level,��� he said.

The agriculture sector growth, based on the government���s second advance estimate of production, slumped to -2.2% in the third quarter of 2008-09, compared to 6.9% in the last fiscal. The farm sector grew at 4.5% in FY08. However, noting the sharp rise in production figures as reflected in the final estimate from the second advance projections last year, some economists had expressed optimism about a repetition of the situation this year, too.

Commenting on the dismal growth of the sector, Planning Commission member Abhijit Sen said the final estimate for 2007-08 was revised significantly upwards from the second estimate, hinting at a possible rise in output in the final estimate this year, too. a report by global financial firm Goldman Sachs said the slump in agriculture growth in the third quarter ���exaggerates��� the slowdown in the sector, which may grow at 2.6% in FY09. Last year, India produced record 230.8 million tonnes of foodgrains, comprising rice, wheat, coarse cereals and pulses, compared to the second estimate of 219.3 million tonnes.

Similarly, the country produced 29.8 million tonnes of oilseeds against the second advance projection of 27.2 million tonnes, while 348.2 million tonnes of sugar cane was harvested against the estimated 340.3 million tonnes.

Last month, releasing the second advance estimate for 2008-09, the government projected the output of 227.9 million tonnes of foodgrains, 25.9 million tonnes of oilseeds and 290.5 million tonnes of sugarcane. Earlier last month, the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), which released the growth figures, attributed the fall in the production of coarse cereals, pulses, cotton, oilseeds and sugarcane during the kharif season of 2008-09 to the slump in the farm sector.

The agriculture ministry, which projected a 4% growth rate for the sector this fiscal, has now trimmed its forecast to 2.6%.