Farm growth likely to wilt to 2% in 2008-09

NEW DELHI: Farm growth is likely to decline to 2% in 2008-09, partly on account of poor rains and due to base affect of higher growth in the last fiscal, the Prime Minister���s Economic Advisory Council said on Wednesday. This estimate puts farm growth this fiscal at the lowest in four years. The sector is estimated to have grown 4.5% in 2007-08, 3.8% in 2006-07 and 5.9% a year earlier.

The report said the lower growth projection is in part due to the base effect of very high growth in 2007-08 and the weak South-West monsoon over peninsular, central and western India in July. ���We expect that kharif food grain and oilseed output may be at about the same level as last year, while there may be some expansion in the Rabi harvest,��� it said.

The EAC���s estimate has divided farm economists. The estimate comes much before the year-end Rabi Conference, which comes out with the Centre���s first advance estimate on crop output. Besides, the multi-expert Crop Weather Watch Group is yet to give a clear picture of the area coverage under various crops this kharif season.

Icrier���s Surabhi Mittal felt the growth figure for 2008-09 was realistic and could later be revised to 2.6-3%. However, her view is not echoed by IFPRI���s Ashok Gulati and Planning Commission member Abhijeet Sen, who peg final farm sector growth between 3.5% and 4%.

���The EAC was working, against poor July monsoons, on the surmise that kharif growth would be almost nil. But my own assessment is that kharif growth could be between 1.5-2% following the revival of monsoons, while rabi growth will be a much higher at 5%, bringing up the overall average,��� Prof Sen said.