Explained: Why a super El Niño leaves tropical commodities acutely exposed

LONDON/NEW YORK, - Global forecasters say an El Nino weather pattern is strengthening and could develop into a 'very strong' event that boosts temperatures, disrupts rainfall and poses risks to crops the world over.

What is El Nino and why are commodities grown in tropical regions, known as soft commodities, especially exposed?

EL NINO

El Nino is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific caused by weakening trade winds. It occurs naturally every two to seven years and tends to last between nine and ‌12 months.


The weather pattern ⁠typically results ⁠in warmer temperatures across the globe, drought in regions including South and Southeast Asia, Australia and Southern Africa, and heavy rainfall in others including the southern parts of South America and the United States.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center upgraded its ​El Nino forecast last week, saying there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the northern hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.

El Nino-driven dryness, heat or excess rains are ​a blow for farmers already grappling this year with the fertiliser and diesel price shocks spurred by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

Soft commodities have consistently seen strong price gains during past El Nino episodes.

COCOA

Every strong El Nino in the past 55 years has reduced cocoa output, according to investment firm WisdomTree.

During the last El Nino, which ran from mid-2023 to ​mid-2024 and was considered moderate-to-strong, top grower West Africa was initially hit by double its normal rainfall, which left cocoa trees ⁠exposed to a ‌fungal disease.

In 2024, the weather pattern flipped and West Africa was hit by intense heat and by Harmattan winds that were unseasonably dry and ​strong, causing the disease-weakened ​trees to drop their flowers.

"Everyone thinks El Nino is only associated with droughts in West Africa. This is not necessarily true. Due to ⁠climate change ... the result, at times, (is) too much (initial) rain. Right now, this is my biggest concern," said Jim ​Roemer of consultancy Best Weather.

About half the world's cocoa is grown in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world's first- and ​second-largest bean growers. Ecuador is the world's third-largest, and typically sees excess rains during El Nino episodes.

Cocoa prices nearly tripled in 2024 after the West African harvest failed. They rose to record levels above $12,000 a metric ton by late 2024, making the chocolate ingredient more expensive than many industrial metals.

COFFEE

El Nino is especially problematic for robusta coffee as it typically brings higher temperatures and reduced rainfall to top grower Vietnam and No. 3 grower Indonesia from the middle of the year onwards.

The adverse weather hits the two countries, which jointly account for some 50% of the world's robusta output, during the crop development phase. Its impacts are then felt from the fourth quarter, during the harvest.

"Dryness in Vietnam and Indonesia could significantly trim yields for robusta ‌coffee," said analysts at Citi.

For arabica coffee, nearly half of which is grown in Brazil, the El Nino impact is more nuanced.

Carlos Santana, commercial director at trader ECOM's subsidiary EISA, said El Nino could initially be positive for the crop Brazil is currently harvesting, as higher temperatures could prevent ​harmful winter frosts.

Longer term, ​however, El Nino typically brings dryness and heat to ⁠Brazil's coffee regions in the fourth quarter when the next crop is developing, putting it on course to hurt output in 2027.

SUGAR

For sugar, one of the most widely traded soft commodities, El Nino typically brings excess rain in the second half of the year, which can disrupt and reduce the quality of the harvest in top grower Brazil.

In No. 2 ​sugar grower India and No. 2 exporter Thailand, by contrast, the weather pattern typically reduces rainfall during the summer monsoon.

India expects the 2026 monsoon will bring the lowest rainfall in 11 years, with showers during the June to September crop development period seen at 90% of average.

Broker Hedgepoint's head of sugar, Carlos de Mello, estimates that even a moderate El Nino could cut India's output by about 1 million metric tons.

Longer term, the above-average rains that El Nino typically brings to Brazil's sugar regions could help next year's crop.

Hedgepoint's de Mello said overall, it is "hard to have a bull market scenario on El Nino" because of its potential benefits for Brazil's 2027 sugar crop.

Brazil accounts for about half of the world's sugar exports.