Excessive rainfall in September may impact kharif crop, increase prices

The above normal rainfall in September as forecast by Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) will impact the kharif crop if it is not spread out evenly. Agricultural experts said that rains are now helping oilseed crops like soyabean and groundnut, pulses, paddy, bajra, maize and cotton, but if the rains are excessive and continue till the end of September, then it will damage crops, sending their prices up.

While the kharif season began on a good note with timely monsoon and good sowing, patchy rains in July and August in certain parts of the country slowed down the pace of sowing. As of September 2, kharif crops have been planted on 108.15 million hectares, down 0.82 percent from the same date the previous year.

"Rainfall was relatively good in June – remaining 10% above normal across most parts of the country. In July, the north-eastern part of the country saw a major deficiency – 7% below normal. However, the situation began worsening in August due to which eastern part of central India as well as parts of western India had a severe rainfall deficiency,” said D S Pai, head of Climate Research and Services, IMD.


“As per Crisil’s on-ground interactions, paddy and bajra in Haryana will benefit from these rains. In Gujarat, though such rains will be beneficial for few days, if it continues throughout the month, it may negatively impact yields of groundnut, acreage for which is already lower by 8-9% on year in the state,” said Hetal Gandhi, director at Crisil Research.

Gandhi added “Similar yield impact on groundnut can be witnessed in Tamil Nadu, following excessive rainfall.”
However, maize and cotton in states like Andhra Pradesh and Telangana will not be impacted much due to such rains, but tur yields in Karnataka, which contributes 20% of tur produced in the country, is expected to be negatively impacted if prolonged spell of rainfall continues.

“If current rainfall situation prevails throughout the month, we expect production decline in crops like groundnut and tur followed by urad, this could lead to an inching up in the prices for these commodities in the coming months,” the Crisil executive said.

Nirav Desai, managing partner, GGN Research, pointed out “Even though monsoon started early, the abrupt gap between June 15 and July 15 curtailed expansion of the pulses crop area, with an overall rainfall deficit of 27.2%. As Rajasthan and Gujarat witnessed a dry spell, it may cause an overall crop deficit of up to 25% in Rajasthan.”

"The situation depends on how the balance 33 days of monsoon season fare. The biggest threat to the crop will be abnormal rainfall which may pose a threat to standing crops, " said B Krishna Murthy, managing director, Four P International.

Rains in September are helping the soybean farmers in Madhya Pradesh. D.N. Pathak, executive director, Soyabean Processors Association of India said. “Moisture due to rains is helping in soyabean pod formation and pod filling now. But if it rains excessively, then it will damage the crop.”

Bimal Kothari, vice chairman, India Pulses and Grains Association (IPGA) said “If the crops face heavy rainfall activity during harvest period, we may see some damage to urad and moong crop. Rajasthan has seen a dry spell in the month of August, hence we may see a drastic reduction of moong production in the state of Rajasthan.”

The feed industry expects kharif production of maize to remain close to what it was in the previous year. "We think that the kharif output of maize can be around 14 lakh tonnes to 15 lakh tonnes," said Jaison John, Team Lead (India), US Soyabean Export Council.

The cotton trade is upbeat about an increase in production. "Though there is a 7% to 8% fall in the area sown under cotton, we hope for a better crop than the previous year as cotton growing areas have received rainfall at right intervals. As against 358 lakh bales in 2020-21, we expect the production to increase to 370 lakh bales in 2021-22 due to expectations of better yield. However, it will also depend upon the weather conditions in the coming months," said BS Rajpal, president, Maharashtra Cotton Ginners' Association.