Excess rainfall, untimely sowing likely to hit some kharif crops

PUNE: The weather office's forecast that the second half of the monsoon season could see above-normal rains has raised fears that excess moisture could hit the crops of moong, urad, soyabean and cotton, sowing for which has started late because of deficit rainfall. It has been seen that delayed sowing followed by excess rainfall at the time of harvest or during the flowering and the fruiting stages has often spoiled crops of moong, urad, soyabean and cotton, reducing their production substantially. This year, the pulses industry is expecting a big jump in the area sown under urad and tur due to attractive prices.

"If rainfall remains normal at the time of harvest, we can expect a very good crop of urad. However, if we get excessive rainfall at the time of harvest, it can damage the quality of the crop," said B Krishnamurthy, committee member of Indian Pulses and Grains Association (IPGA). Past experience shows that just increasing acreage does not guarantee a bumper output. "It has been our experience since the last 3-4 years that the sowing data of the government agencies is encouraging, and we expect the prices to come down," said Krishnamurthi. "However, at harvest time, excessive rainfall affects the quality of the crop." This corroborates with increasing frequency of multi-year La Nina events and changes in India's monsoon rainfall patterns. Weather scientists say that in a La Nina year, more rainfall is expected in the second half of the monsoon season.

"This year, La Nina will develop in July. It is expected in a La Nina year to get more rainfall in the second half of the monsoon season," said M Rajeevan, former secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences. "The rainfall in the month of September is good during La Nina and it usually gets extended for a few weeks in October."