Erratic monsoon to hit crop output

From a deluge finally down to the drizzle, we’ve seen it all this monsoon. The season has been erratic and heavily concentrated over a few states. In the current week as well, rainfall has been strong only over the western states and a few eastern pockets.

On the crops front, even though the Kharif crops have got off to a good start, a massive downpour and flooding in the rural areas of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and Gujarat would have an impact on crop production. However, there are no official figures to back this, as the ministry of agriculture has not released weekly crop data for the last four weeks.

The actual rainfall for the week ended August 23 was 56.6 millimetres, only 2% below the normal quantum of rainfall for the week. The total rainfall for the season so far (from June 1 to August 23) is 654.8mm, a 1% departure from the expected volume of rainfall for the season.

States like Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, western Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Assam, Bihar, Arunachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have seen deficient rainfall for the major part of the current monsoon. The sugarcane crop appears to be the most affected, as four of the six key states where the crop is extensively sown have seen deficient rains.

The flooding in rural Maharashtra will impact sugarcane production, and this could impact farmer income levels. Cotton, the other major cash crop that is sown extensively in the Kharif season, should not be impacted.

Rice is another crop that could see a decline in production as it is extensively sown in Bihar, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh. Other crops that could be impacted are jowar, bajra, sesamum and kharif pulses. These eight states that have seen deficient rainfall contribute about 30% towards agricultural GDP.

States that have seen excess rainfall in the current monsoon are Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Orissa and Madhya Pradesh. However, rural Maharashtra and Gujarat were badly affected by the heavy rainfall and this could have some impact on crop performance in the two respective states.

Other states such as Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir, Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal and Jharkhand have seen normal rainfall in the current monsoon season so far. According to the IMD, a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal should result in increased rainfall over Orissa, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh.