El Niño effect: Kharif crops, winter sowing face stress as drought hits 53% of India

New Delhi: With the monsoon entering its final weeks, El Nino-induced drought-like conditions affecting more than half of India are raising concerns about standing kharif crops and soil moisture ahead of the winter planting season.

About 53.2% of India's landmass is experiencing some degree of drought, according to the India Drought Monitor developed by IIT Gandhinagar's Water and Climate Lab. The affected area has expanded sharply from about 46% a week ago. Of the country's total area, 33.4% is under moderate drought or worse, 15.4% under severe drought or worse, and 3.8% under extreme drought till September 9, according to the monitor. There's exceptional drought in 0.1% of the country. The assessment assumes significance as India's cumulative southwest monsoon rainfall remains about 15% below normal, with deficient rainfall spread across a large part of the country. As of Tuesday, 41% of the 734 districts monitored were rainfall deficient and another 6% were "large deficient", according to India Meteorological Department (IMD) data.

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The weather department had warned before the season that El Nino could develop during the southwest monsoon rains and had forecast countrywide seasonal rainfall at 92% of the long-period average, or "below-normal". "This year has been a year of extremes, with several floods and droughts occurring," said Vimal Mishra, dean of Research and Development at IIT Gandhinagar. The monitor combines multiple indicators rather than rainfall alone. The Water and Climate Lab draws on hydro-meteorological data from IMD and the Central Water Commission (CWC), satellite products from ISRO's National Remote Sensing Centre and global datasets from NASA to assess drought conditions.

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The stress is particularly pronounced in several agriculturally important states. Maharashtra stands out with 85.2% of its area experiencing some degree of drought. More significantly, 25.93% of the state is under "extreme" drought and another 17.20% under "exceptional" drought, putting 43.13% of its area in the two most severe categories.

Among other major agricultural states, 11.91% of Chhattisgarh's area is under "extreme" or "exceptional" drought, compared with 5.22% in Madhya Pradesh and 4.92% in Uttar Pradesh, according to the monitor. Goa has the largest proportion of its area under some degree of drought at 94.6%, followed by Andhra Pradesh at 90%, Telangana and Arunachal Pradesh at 86.2% each, Maharashtra at 85.2% and Sikkim at 81.8%. Nagaland, Tripura, Odisha and Uttarakhand are among the least affected states. The emerging drought-like conditions could add to pressure on the standing kharif crops, particularly in the rain-fed regions. The rainfall deficit has already raised concerns over yields of crops such as tur, urad and soybean, while dry conditions have affected parts of Maharashtra, Telangana and Karnataka.