El Nino fears: Govt cuts foodgrain target by 2.63 MT

The Union Government on Tuesday announced a lower foodgrain production target of 373.93 million tonnes for the 2026-27 crop year (July–June), citing concerns related to El Niño weather patterns.

This overall target represents a drop of 2.63 million tonnes compared to the actual output of 376.56 million tonnes recorded during the 2025-26 crop year. However, it remains higher than the initial target of 362 million tonnes set for 2025-26.

Of the total 2026-27 target, the season-wise allocations stand at 196.21 million tonnes for the 2026 kharif (summer) season and 177.72 million tonnes for the rabi (winter) crop season.


Also read: Foodgrain target for 2026-27 cut to 374 MT amid El Nino concerns; Rabi pegged at 178 MT

In India, cropping patterns are split into these two distinct cycles. Sowing operations for kharif crops like paddy have recently concluded, while planting for rabi crops such as wheat will start in October.

"Based on a scientific assessment of El Nino conditions, a total national foodgrain production target of 373.93 million tonnes has been set for 2026-27, which includes a target of 177.72 million tonnes for the rabi season," Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan stated while addressing the media during a two-day national conference.

He explained that these output goals were framed after factoring in soil moisture and water availability, as well as holding detailed consultations with individual states to adjust cropping patterns in light of adverse conditions.

Regarding rabi preparations, the minister highlighted that planning accounts for challenges stemming from El Niño, alongside the localized droughts and floods experienced in the preceding kharif season.

"Our aim is to avoid water-intensive crops in areas that have received low rainfall and where reservoir levels and soil moisture are low; instead, we intend to cultivate crops like pulses and oilseeds in those regions. These targets have been determined with these considerations in mind," he noted.

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Addressing queries about global forecasts indicating El Niño could become "very strong" by late 2026, Chouhan mentioned that the government is actively engaging with state authorities on appropriate crops and seed varieties for the current environment.

He noted that crop planning is being modified to match regional variations in water resources, soil moisture, and rainfall, with contingency frameworks ready to be deployed wherever drought conditions emerge.

"Although rainfall is currently deficient by around 12 per cent, there is no major crisis at the national level," he said, emphasizing that agricultural stress remains localized rather than widespread.

Fertiliser supply and kharif performance

Turning to input management, Chouhan assured that fertiliser supplies remain stable despite global price volatility that saw costs nearly double in certain instances.

"There is no shortage of fertiliser in the country, and sufficient supplies will be available for the Rabi season," he confirmed.

Based on state-level estimates for 2026-27, overall fertiliser demand is projected at 380 lakh tonnes. The current opening stock stands above 163 lakh tonnes—significantly higher than the 122 lakh tonnes recorded at the start of the previous rabi season.

Reflecting on the recently concluded kharif sowing, the minister expressed confidence that final output will not see a major drop despite weather disruptions.

He highlighted that proactive preparation began as early as April. While acreage under certain crops declined, the total sown area across the country remains comparable to last year. With the national rainfall deficit around 12 per cent—well below the 20 per cent threshold officially classified as a drought—production is expected to hold steady.

"I do not believe that production will be significantly impacted by this level of deficit," he stated, adding that official final production figures will be released shortly.

Shifts in acreage and regional impact

The sharpest contraction in kharif cultivation was recorded in paddy, where sown area shrank by roughly 16.32 lakh hectares. Reductions were also noted in maize, soybean, and cotton. Conversely, acreage expanded for pulses and oilseeds, including urad, moong, tur, bajra, jowar, sesame, and sunflower.

"This indicates a shift towards pulses and coarse cereals," the minister observed.

A drop in overall cultivated area was reported across Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Gujarat. Excessive rainfall and flooding in these states inundated approximately 6.11 lakh hectares of crop area, with comprehensive damage assessments currently underway.

Simultaneously, drought concerns have surfaced in parts of Karnataka, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh (including Rayalaseema), Telangana, and Rajasthan.

"The information received so far indicates concerns in Karnataka, Maharashtra, parts of Andhra Pradesh—including Rayalaseema and adjoining areas—parts of Telangana and parts of Rajasthan. Detailed reports from the states are still awaited," Chouhan remarked.

To assess ground conditions, a Central team is slated to visit Karnataka on October 3 following a request from the state government. A similar assessment team will be dispatched to Maharashtra following a request from its Chief Minister. Chouhan added that he will personally visit affected regions while maintaining constant touch with state leadership.

"The immediate objective is to ensure that agricultural fields do not remain fallow," he said.

The Central government will assist states in selecting short-duration, low-water, and climate-resilient crop varieties tailored to local soil conditions, while streamlining coordination among key stakeholders.

Concluding his address, Chouhan emphasized that farmers should not bear the sole blame for regional air pollution through crop residue practices.

"While stubble burning contributes to pollution to some extent, it is incorrect and unfair to portray it as the primary cause of pollution or to harass farmers on that basis," he stated, adding that the issue requires a broader solution considering all pollution contributors.

The press briefing was also attended by Ministers of State for Agriculture Bhagirath Choudhary and Ramnath Thakur, Agriculture Secretary Atish Chandra, and ICAR Director General M L Jat.