El Nino effect: Monsoon deficit hits 15%; Key pulses and oilseeds at risk

Pune: Cumulative rainfall deficit this monsoon season is about 15% so far due to El Nino, with nearly half the districts in India reporting below-average precipitation, stoking concerns of yield contraction in key summer-sown crops and prompting some states to ration water use to minimise shrinkage in rabi (winter-sown) output.

Agricultural experts believe the rain shortage could affect output of pulses such as tur and urad and soyabean, the key oilseed crop of the kharif (summer-sown) season. Other standing crops are also at risk, should the rain deficit persist.

"The acute moisture deficit across primary rainfed belts poses an immediate threat to the Kharif balance sheet," said Deepak Pareek, founder of agri-advisory firm HnyB.


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"Even on an optimistic baseline, overall grain production in India could shrink by roughly 8% compared to last year for Kharif, which will inevitably test domestic supply buffers and exert upward pressure on food inflation."

While Karnataka has declared a drought in more than 100 talukas and could add 25 more to the list, standing crops in Marathwada and Vidarbha in Maharashtra, and parts of Telangana and Madhya Pradesh urgently need rains to limit losses in farm output, experts said.

In north India, the Bhakra Beas Management Board has asked Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan to reduce water use as Bhakra and Pong reservoir levels are lower than what they usually are at this time of the annual rainy season. The board has also asked these states to advise farmers to opt for low water requirement crops in the upcoming rabi season.

Meanwhile, the Maharashtra government has asked the agriculture department to examine crops affected by moisture deficit.

Given this critical soil-moisture deficit, yield of vital crops such as pigeon pea (tur), black matpe (urad), and soybean could contract between 10% and 20%.

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"Several key pulses and oilseed-producing districts are currently grappling with severe water stress, where cumulative precipitation has plummeted to nearly 40% below the long period average (LPA)," Pareek said.

Yield at Risk

Data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) showed that 45% of all districts in the country have deficit rainfall this season. Nationally, the gap is about 15% so far.

Deficit rainfall and record high temperatures have adversely affected standing kharif crops.

According to IMD data, the minimum temperature nationally in August was the highest after 1902, the mean temperature was the second highest, and the maximum temperature the fourth highest since then.

Temperatures in September are expected to be similarly high, said IMD scientists.

"We expect the formation of a system which will give rainfall in central and south India next week. However, it will not be able to cover the current rainfall deficit," said OP Sreejeth, head, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Group, IMD.

In many agriculturally crucial states, about 30-50% of the districts have rainfall deficits.