Below-normal rain forecast for July, August dampens spirits

NEW DELHI: A warning that July and August are likely to see below-normal rains has tinged the elation over the monsoon's arrival on schedule. Private weather forecaster Skymet Weather Services has forecast India average rainfall for June at 105%, July at 101%, August at 100% and September at 103%, with the four-month average at 102%.

In its first forecast in April, it said this year's monsoon yield could be 103% of the long-period average (LPA) of 89 cm.

"The country should receive a normal monsoon in 2013. But, north India will be severely affected in July," said Jatin Singh of Skymet Weather Services. He said the onset of the monsoon over Delhi was expected to be delayed till July 8.

"There is a negative evolving Indian Ocean Dipole near Indonesia. It can potentially create a scenario that will pull moisture from the Arabian sea and Bay of Bengal towards east Indian ocean and weaken monsoon over India.

As per Skymet, across northern parts of country, the spread of the monthly rainfall in June and September is expected to be normal, whereas July and August are expected to be below normal," said Singh.

By June 4, the southwest monsoon has advanced into parts of central Arabian Sea, entire Goa, parts of south Konkan, south Madhya Maharashtra, Telangana, south coastal Andhra Pradesh, remaining parts of south interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema.