Australian weather office predicts El Nino, IMD says can’t take models at face value

NEW DELHI: Prospects of the rain-busting El Nino phenomenon emerging this year have increased, sparking fears that the vital monsoon rainfall may be weak this summer, but India’s weather office says these models should not be taken at face value.

El Nino, associated with warming of parts of the Pacific Ocean, often leads to drought in South Asia and deluge in some parts of the world such as Peru which suffered heavy casualties last week due to heavy showers triggered by the same phenomenon.

For India, which gets 75% of its rainfall from monsoon showers and has inadequate irrigation facilities, the stakes are high because the country suffered two consecutive droughts and acute rural distress before last year’s normal monsoon rain restored agricultural growth.




Australia’s widely respected weather office said sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed since the start of the year. Climate model outlooks suggest further warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean will occur in the coming months. These changes mean the likelihood of El Niño forming in 2017 has risen, it said in its latest assessment of the phenomenon.

India Meteorological Department director general says these climate models had also predicted the reverse La Nina last year, which was expected to boost the monsoon in South Asia, but that phenomenon did not blossom to the forecast level.

“The model predictions show that El Nino will develop after July this year. But these predictions are not to be taken at the face value, looking at the inaccurate predictions about La Nina last year,” Ramesh told ET.

The Australian weather office said El Nino may appear later in the year. If El Nino forms in the tropical Pacific Ocean, it is not likely to become established until the second half of 2017.

However, waters more than 2°C above normal have been observed in the far eastern Pacific, along the South American coast. This coastal El Nino effect contributed to heavy rainfall and widespread flooding in Peru, causing multiple fatalities in recent days. India’s agricultural production growth was severely hit by two years of drought caused by the dreaded El Nino phenomenon before rebounding in the current crop year, when farm output is forecast to grow 8%. If rainfall is erratic this year, output would suffer and may even by lower compared to the high base.