Above normal temperature forecast may hit India’s wheat crop

Anticipated above normal temperatures in March through May summer is likely to adversely affect India's wheat crop. Inflation in wheat has remained high for the past four years mainly due to the adverse impact of weather conditions.

After having witnessed the hottest February on record in 125 years, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast above normal maximum and minimum temperatures over most parts of the country from March to April 2025.

The number of heat waves in March, which is crucial for the grain formation stage of wheat, is also expected to go up.


“Above normal heat wave days are likely over most parts of central India and adjoining northern parts of South Peninsula during March 2025,” said IMD in its long range forecast for the summer season.

Wheat, a winter crop that can be grown only once in a year and is a daily staple for nearly half of the country, cannot tolerate higher temperatures.

“The impact of heat will be felt more in Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh where the wheat kernels will be entering the milking stage when the grain starts expanding in size,” said Ajay Goyal, chairman, Wheat Products Promotion Society (WPPS).

“The grains will shrink due to high temperatures affecting the weight of each grain and in turn, the overall yield of the wheat crop,” he added,

Consistent fall in wheat production over the past four years has whittled down the wheat stock in the government. Lower stocks with the government agencies have diminished the price control ability of the policy makers and added to the food inflation worries.

After achieving a record high wheat procurement of 43.3 million tonnes in 2021-22, India’s wheat procurement had fallen to an all time low of 18.8 million tonnes in 2022-23 as extreme heat affected wheat production. The procurement of wheat had increased to 26.2 million tonnes in 2023-24, while the government could procure only 26.6 million tonnes of wheat in 2024-25 against the target of about 30-32 million tonnes.

For the upcoming procurement season, which usually begins in April with the harvest of the crop, the government has set a procurement target of 31 million tonnes. The actual procurement will depend on the production numbers and open market prices.

“The yield can reduce by 3% to 4% due to high temperatures. But it is too early to get an idea about actual impact,” said Goyal.

The adoption of heat-resistant seeds is likely to have increased this year. However, there is no data about how much area is under these seeds.

Similarly, the northern Himalayan states have been receiving snowfall, which is a monitorable for the wheat crop in the coming weeks, said experts.