40% probability of below normal monsoon: Skymet

NEW DELHI: India should prepare for below-normal rainfall in the crucial monsoon season this year, particularly in the agriculturally significant north-western and western central regions, private forecaster Skymet has said.

In a forecast for the June-September rainy season released on Tuesday, Skymet said there was a 40% chance that rainfall would be less than average and a 25% chance that there would be a drought. This can lead to another spurt in inflation, similar to the last drought in 2009 when food inflation jumped to 20% in December and stubbornly remained high for years.

Skymet’s forecast is in line with predictions of international agencies that expect the El Nino weather-altering phenomenon to disrupt rains this summer.

Skymet said monsoon in India is likely to be 94% of its long period average (LPA), which means the country will get 896 mm of rainfall during the four months. It said northwestern and western central regions of the country will witness an especially “dry” monsoon.

Attributing the weak monsoon to the developing El Nino phenomenon, Skymet said the progression of monsoon in India will also be staggered. It indicated a 25% chance of India facing a drought this year with 2014 being strongly expected to be an El Nino year.

Skymet said the probability of above normal rainfall was 1% while that of excess rainfall was 0% as of now. It said areas around Gujarat, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, east and west Madhya Pradesh, Vidharba and central Maharashtra, Konkan and Goa, Karnataka and Telangana could develop into strong localised drought regions if El Nino persists.

With metrological agencies globally tracking the development of El Nino, Skymet said the chances of this phenomenon amplifying in India was 30%. “Otherwise, it would be a non-amplifying El Nino, which though seems to peak around June-July but tapers off by the end of August,” said Jatin Singh, CEO at, Skymet.

El Nino is an oceanic phenomenon that upsets rainfall patterns. It emerges at a gap of 3 to 7 years in the Pacific Ocean.

Singh said the prevailing weather conditions are similar to that of 2012 and 1968, which were El Nino years but did not cause drought in India. El Nino has a history of adversely impacting the rainfall in India during monsoon. In the last decade, 2002, 2004 and 2009 were drought years in India because of El Nino.

Skymet said it is expecting August to be a decent monsoon month with 70% chance of normal rainfall. June, which normally marks the onset of monsoon, has a 68% chance of receiving normal rainfall and 25% chance of deficit rains.